Isolated Severe Threat PM Tuesday

"A storm system moving over the Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon and evening, will develop an area of thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front. Due to ample wind shear and weak instability, isolated severe hail and gusty winds will accompany the strongest storms during the early evening before weakening, and moving east of our region."

See more from the NWS Twin Cities

Simulated Radar Tuesday

Here's the simulated radar from 7am Tuesday to 7am Wednesday, which shows a line of strong to severe storms developing in the southeastern part of the state late in the day. This line of storms could potentially bring isolated large hail and damaging winds to a few locations in the marginal risk area.

Fall Color Update

Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Thanks to recent frost overnight lows and dwindling daylight - peak color is coming fast to a backyard near you. Note that peak color is already being reported across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin with near peak color in many other locations. Get out there and enjoy it quick before it's too late!

See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:

Average Fall Color

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!

What Causes Fall Colors?

The chemicals

Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?

Turning Much Cooler With Snow Up North?

The weather outlook from AM Tuesday to AM Saturday shows a line of storms moving through PM Tuesday with much cooler air funneling in behind for the rest of the week. The air could be cold enough to support snow flakes across the northern part of the state.

Precipitation Potential

Here's the extended precipitation potential, which shows precipitation amounts up to a few tenths of an inch across the eastern and northeastern part of the state. Some of the heaviest could be found in northern Wisconsin.

Snowfall Potential

There is a chance for snow across the northern part of the state this week. It doesn't look like much, but don't be surprised if you hear reports of snow falling from distant friends up north.

Sharp Cold Front Arrives Midweek

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from AM Tuesday to AM Saturday. Note the oranges and reds in place through Tuesday, which suggests above average temps through that time frame. However, there is a sharp cold front that will blast through with temps tumbling into the 40s and 50s, which will be well below average for this time of the year.

Much Colder Late Week

Here's a look at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. Note that highs will warm to near 80F on Tuesday before the bottom falls. Highs will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be well below average for mid October.

Severe Drought Continues in the Metro

According to the US Drought Monitor (updated October 4th) there is now a sliver of Extreme drought from the Twin Cities to Southwestern MN. This is an area that is well below average precipitation for the year.

Average First Frost For MSP

Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

First Measurable Snow at MSP

Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temperatures on Tuesday will be nearly +15F to +20F above average for the 11th day of October. There could be a few isolated strong to severe storms late in the day along a cool front that will bring much cooler air through the rest of the week.

Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming to near 80F with a chance of thunderstorms late. Southerly winds will also be quite strong with gusts approaching 40mph at times.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting in the mid 50s in the morning and warming to near 80F by the afternoon. There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day, some of which could be strong to severe. Southerly winds will also be quite strong with gusts approaching 40mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming to near 80F on Wednesday, which will be nearly +15F to +20F above average for mid October. However, temps will cool down significantly again with highs only warming into the 40s and 50s with frosty overnight lows.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows one last mild day Tuesday before much colder air moves in. Highs on Thursday may not even make it into the 50s, which will be well below average for this time of the year and will remain quite chilly through the weekend.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the Eastern US, while warmer than average temps will be found in the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather holding on across the Midwest, while more unsettled weather continues in the Southwest.

Last Warm Day In Sight For Some Time
By Paul Douglas

Here in The Land of 10,000 Cold Fronts we don't take lukewarm days for granted, especially in mid-October. Autumn has been remarkable for an endless string of warm, sunny days - and an increasingly dire lack of rain.

I am resisting the urge to whine, in light of carnage left behind from Ian's strike on southwest Florida. Ian was a very strong Category 4 storm. Some perspective: a Category 5 hurricane is 500 times more powerful than a Category 1, generating 144 times more destructive force, according to John Perritano at How Stuff Works.

If the sun stays out most of today (likely) we may hit 80F in the metro, with a few isolated severe T-storms possible this evening. After today's mild breeze I see a parade of cold fronts and wind-whipped showers. A week from now it will be cold enough aloft for flurries, but a lack of moisture will save us from flaky fun in and around the metro area.

We may soon pay the bill for all these balmy days. So enjoy" Minnesota Wear Your Shorts to Work Day". Soak it up!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Warm winds, late T-storms. Winds: S 15-35. High: 80.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Breezy with a chance of storms. Winds: S 15-25. Low: 49.

WEDNESDAY: Gusty with showers. Winds: W 15-30. High: 55.

THURSDAY: Windy and raw with sprinkles. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 42. High: 49.

FRIDAY: Sunny peeks, late showers. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 52.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 53.

SUNDAY: Next cold front: windblown showers. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 37. High: 46.

MONDAY: Sunny with hints of November. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 39.

This Day in Weather History

October 11th

1909: A snowstorm hits the state, along with temperatures dropping to 7 degrees over northern MN.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 11th

Average High: 64F (Record: 88F set in 2011)

Average Low: 46F (Record: 25F set in 1952)

Record Rainfall: 2.31" set in 1911

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1952 & 1991

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 11th

Sunrise: 7:23am

Sunset: 6:35pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 11 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 29 minutes

Moon Phase for October 11th at Midnight

2.4 Days After Full "Hunter's Moon"

"3:55 p.m. CDT - With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it's now time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox and other animals."

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temperatures in place across the Midwest

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday along a frontal boundary that will push through the Midwest late in the day. Much of the rest of the nation will remain fairly quiet.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Wednesday shows unsettled weather developing in the Midwest and moving through the Great Lakes with scattered showers and storms. This unsettled weather will push into the Eastern US later in the week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain will be possible across the eastern half of the nation and especially in the Northeast. Through could also be heavier pockets of rain throughout parts of the southern and southwestern US.

Climate Stories

"The Underappreciated Tool for Surviving Extreme Weather"

"Week by week, thanks in large part to climate change, it seems we hear new stories of natural disasters and their horrific effects across the United States: hurricanes slamming Puerto Rico and Florida, droughts in the American Southwest, wildfires scorching the Pacific Northwest as well as punishing heat waves in Texas, incomprehensible flooding in Kentucky and Missouri and the Plains. All together, these horrorshow events have devastated millions of Americans and indicate grim times ahead."

See more from Mother Jones HERE:

"Could a powerful solar storm wipe out the internet?"

"In Becky Chambers' 2019 novella "To Be Taught, If Fortunate," a massive solar storm wipes out Earth's internet, leaving a group of astronauts stranded in space with no way to phone home. It's a terrifying prospect, but could a solar storm knock out the internet in real life? And if so, how likely is that to happen? Yes, it could happen, but it would take a giant solar storm, Mathew Owens, a solar physicist at the University of Reading in the U.K., told Live Science. "You would really need some huge event to do that, which is not impossible," Owens said. "But I would think that knocking out power grids is more likely." In fact, this phenomenon has already happened on a small scale."

See more from Live Science HERE:

"Dropping water levels and rising salinity push Great Salt Lake to brink of ecosystem collapse"

"Great Salt Lake is well known for being salty, but record-low water levels driven by high water usage and several years of drought may soon make it too salty for even the brine shrimp that have made it a home. The lake provides an important source of food for migrating birds and supports a multi-million-dollar brine shrimp industry, both of which could be lost if water levels don't rebound soon."

See more from HERE:

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