Olson: Top 10 political stories to watch for in 2026

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Here’s a look ahead to the political flash points poised to define 2026, from power struggles and policy fights to the cultural fault lines shaping Minnesota public life.

In a mid-presidential election year, this contest gets the top spot because Gov. Tim Walz is seeking a historic third four-year term. Democrats should be enjoying tailwinds with the increasingly unpopular president. But Walz has become a high-profile right-wing punching bag with the ongoing social services fraud prosecutions in Minnesota and unease about his quest for another four years. The Republican field, meanwhile, is courting MAGA voters and President Donald Trump’s endorsement, tying them to his unpredictable decisions.

All 201 seats in the Minnesota Legislature are on the ballot in November, and a raft of veterans already have announced retirements. That means turnover, open seats and challengers in swing districts from Hermantown to the Twin Cities exurbs. The midterm would historically favor DFLers. Few districts are purple enough to be truly up for grabs, meaning it’s likely the 2027 Legislature will again be narrowly divided. But who will be in charge? Can the DFL hold onto the Senate? Can the GOP take control of the House outright?

The DFL faceoff between U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the Democratic nomination in the seat held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith is intensifying. Both would-be successors jumped in fast when Smith announced she wouldn’t run again. The main event here will be the September primary with the winner advancing to November to challenge the Republican nominee. In a mirror of the national debate over the direction of the Democratic Party, Flanagan is running as a progressive with the backing of Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, and Bernie Sanders, of Vermont. Craig is a centrist, a pragmatist who has succeeded with the bipartisan voters in the Second Congressional District in the Twin Cities’ southeastern suburbs.

Amid ongoing investigations, prosecutions and backlash, expect lots of attention and tension on the topic of social services fraud from candidates, across agencies and offices at all levels. The Legislature, the governor and the administration are all trying to present themselves as diligent fraud-fighters. This will be one of the biggest overarching issues of the year, especially with the campaigns for state and legislative offices. Expect lots of outside attention from Washington, D.C., and on social media with all trying to dent the Democrats’ hold on statewide offices. The targeted racism, xenophobia and nastiness aren’t likely to abate any time soon.

Minnesota’s one of the states singled out by the president for demeaning rhetoric and actions. Trump, with an assist from Republican House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, has recently stepped up vilification of the state’s Somali population. The administration also recently decided to withhold $185 million in Minnesota’s child-care assistance money. The action, tied to the fraud allegations, could squeeze care for 23,000 children and 12,000 families. A U.S. House Republican is bringing his Minnesota partisans to D.C. to testify about fraud, and he also wants Walz to come. Minnesota can expect additional rough treatment from Trump and, if he continues to stem the flow of money for social services, the state will be forced to scramble to fill the gap. How will the state weather the onslaught, and will the president eventually tire of badgering Minnesota and move on to another target?

Revenue and spending are prominent concerns in any year. But stagnant population growth, a shrinking available workforce and a revenue downturn are among looming concerns. The state’s fiscal outlook remains solid for now, but who knows what lies ahead? The state’s economic health underpins and drives policy, so fiscal health is a foundational, inescapable concern.

There’s a new pairing of executives in charge of the Twin Cities. How will their relationship play out, and will either of them become players on the state or national stage? Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey won election to a third term that he says will be his last. What can he accomplish, and will it be substantial enough to position him as a contender for the governor’s office? In the other twin city is St. Paul’s freshman Mayor Kaohly Her, who ousted two-term incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter in November. She’s been running nonstop ever since, learning to play hockey while meeting with City Hall insiders to understand the lay of the land. How will the new pairing of mayors work with the state? Will either emerge as a leader beyond city borders?

Will the GOP members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation face any repercussions for their rock-solid support of Trump and his racist rants against immigrants? If Minnesota feels financial pain from Trump’s actions, will voters demand pushback from Republicans? Will any of Minnesota’s four U.S. House Republicans hold an in-person town hall with constituents, or will they all continue to hide behind telephone town halls with screened calls?