Colorado at Gophers, 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Huntington Bank Stadium, ESPN2, 100.3-FM
After pummeling New Mexico State and Western Illinois by a combined 100-10 score, the Gophers face a team from a Power Five conference in Colorado, though the Buffaloes (0-2) haven't played the part so far, scoring only 11.5 points per game (126th of 131 FBS teams) and allowing 39.5 points per game (tied for 120th nationally).
Three big story lines
Hello, old friends
Saturday's game marks the return of Mike Sanford, Colorado's offensive coordinator who spent the past two seasons in that role with the Gophers. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck fired Sanford after last season, largely because the passing game regressed. Other former Gophers assistants on the Buffaloes staff are tight ends coach Clay Patterson and cornerbacks coach Rod Chance.
Can the Gophers handle adversity?
The only adversity the Gophers have faced in a schedule that so far might be the nation's weakest was a first-drive fumble against Western Illinois. They responded by getting the ball right back and scoring on their next 10 possessions. Colorado, with bigger, stronger and faster athletes, should apply much more pressure.
Forget last year, no matter how fun it was
For Gophers fans, last year's trip to Colorado was glorious. They took over a fun college town at the base of the Rocky Mountains and watched their team drub the Buffaloes 30-0. The players, however, need to remember that blowout is in the past and the task at hand is winning this game.
Two key matchups
Gophers run game vs. Colorado run defense
Led by Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts, the Gophers average 302 rushing yards per game, second nationally only to Air Force's 508.5 produced in a triple-option attack. The Falcons gashed Colorado for 435 yards in a 41-0 romp, and TCU rushed for 275 in a 38-13 win. Another ground-and-pound game could be in store for Minnesota.
Gophers secondary vs. Colorado QBs
The Buffaloes likely will use both Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout and Brendon Lewis, who started against the Gophers last year. Lewis brings more mobility, while Shrout can stretch the field better. The differing styles could challenge the Gophers secondary, which hasn't been tested much so far. Receiver Daniel Arias, a 6-4, 210-pounder, averages 17 yards per catch.
One stat that matters
72% The Gophers' performance on third- and fourth-down conversions (18-for-25). Colorado is at 22.6% (7-for-31).
The Gophers will win if … they get the ground game going early to put Colorado on its heels; they don't give fuel to the Buffaloes' upset hopes in the form of turnovers; and they force the Buffaloes to play lefthanded by shutting down the run game, which will force the QBs to pass often.
The Buffaloes will win if … they throw the Gophers' game right back at them by controlling the ball and shortening the game; they get a couple of turnovers that they turn into touchdowns; and their pass rush, which has yet to register a sack this season, suddenly comes alive and makes Tanner Morgan uncomfortable in the pocket.
Prediction
While the Gophers finally get to play an opponent from a Power Five conference, the Buffaloes don't seem to be prepared to offer a stiff challenge. They've proven incredibly vulnerable to the run, and that's where the Gophers excel. If they stack the box to stop the run, Gophers offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca has an array of pass patterns to call and the athletes to make them work. Morgan has completed 73% of his passes, and backup Athan Kaliakmanis looks poised enough to step in if needed.
Then there's the matchup of Colorado's offense against the Gophers defense. Sanford has as tall task in front of him, and the Buffaloes so far don't have the athletes to consistently challenge good teams. And on Saturday, Sanford will face a deep, veteran defense coordinated by Joe Rossi, who's elevated the Gophers defense into one of the nation's best over the past two seasons. Sure, Sanford might know Minnesota's personnel from his two years in Minneapolis, but does he have the players who can solve that defense?
My expectation: While the Gophers might not match their average of 50 points per game or even cover the 27½ points by which they're favored, they'll have another workmanlike effort and improve to 3-0. Gophers 34, Buffaloes 10.
