SAN DIEGO – As Central Americans from a migrant caravan begin entering the asylum process from the U.S. border, they face a complex legal battle that most who have tried in recent years have lost.
Just under 80 percent of the 15,667 asylum cases from El Salvador were denied from fiscal years 2012 to 2017, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, a project at Syracuse University that monitors immigration data through public records requests. About 78 percent of the 11,020 Honduran cases and about 75 percent of the 10,983 Guatemalan cases were denied.
Those trends could change as case law established in the past couple of years has helped more Central Americans show how their stories line up with requirements for asylum.
"There's a steeper hill to climb, I think, in the Central American cases," said Dana Leigh Marks, a spokeswoman with the National Association of Immigration Judges. "They involve cutting-edge legal arguments. The case law is still evolving. Whether it's a liberal or a conservative trend, the reality is law is based on case precedent. The more precedent that builds and makes that principle clearer, the more established it's going to be and the more consistent it's going to be."
Under asylum law, people seeking protection must show that they have been persecuted or have a well-founded fear that they will be persecuted because of their race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a social group.
Being afraid of general violence or rampant crime is not enough to win a case.
Some Central Americans have more traditional cases under the race or political opinion categories, but most are fleeing gang violence or domestic violence. Such cases tend to require asylum-seekers to show that the bad things that happened to them were because they are part of a particular social group.
More are winning their cases than before, said Ginger Jacobs, an immigration attorney in San Diego, especially in the last two years.