Modest progress on violent crime

Opinion editor's note: Editorials represent the opinions of the Star Tribune Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom.

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By the numbers, 2024 kicked off with relatively encouraging news on violent crime trend lines in the Twin Cities.

Homicides fell in both Minneapolis and St. Paul in 2023 vs. the year before. Minneapolis finished the year with 72 homicides, according to city statistics, down from 80 in 2022 and 97 in 2021.

And in the Capitol City, preliminary figures show that 33 people were killed in 2023, although not all of them have officially been determined to be criminal homicides. That's down from the 40 killed in 2022 — 34 of which were investigated as criminal homicides.

Still, some polls show that American's perception of crime doesn't match the numbers. A November Gallup poll, for example, found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening even though the data says violent crime is moving in the right direction.

Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O'Hara said that city's Police Department has a constant struggle dealing with perceptions. He told an editorial writer that whether it's true or not, some residents believe that officers retreated after George Floyd's murder and were not committed to addressing crime in the city.

O'Hara also told an editorial writer that a number of factors have contributed to the slightly improved violent crime numbers, including the efforts of the MPD and county, state and federal agencies. But the numbers are still higher than prior to the pandemic. Not surprisingly, O'Hara said gun violence poses the biggest threat and that the MPD will continue to focus on the small number of people who cause and are victims of shootings.

"In a few neighborhoods, gunfire has become normalized — like background noise … That is unacceptable," he said. "It's not just about the shooters and victims … it affects families, neighborhoods, how kids and families can sleep, whether they're frightened going back and forth to school, whether they'll be shot in their own homes like the 11-year-old girl who was injured on New Year's Eve."

That's why, he added, the MPD is and will continue to use both enforcement and prevention strategies that target those residents most at risk.

In St. Paul, Police Chief Axel Henry said to bring the crime numbers down even further his department is also focused on targeting those involved in gun violence and is emphasizing data-driven work in three key areas — prevention, intervention and enforcement.

Henry told an editorial writer that getting to the root cause of violent crime is critical to making additional progress.

"We are constantly reviewing everything that we do to guard against unintended consequences," he said. "And where we see gains, we try to apply what we've done to other crimes."

Both cities also saw drops in violent carjackings and thefts of catalytic converters in 2023. Carjacking decreased, in part, because the U.S. Attorney's Office got involved and made some of those incidents federal crimes. And the two cities combined averaged roughly four catalytic converter thefts per day in 2023 — down from an average of 12 daily in 2022.

O'Hara said 130 fewer people were shot in Minneapolis in 2023 compared to the previous year, while Henry said 72 fewer were shot year-over-year in St. Paul.

What's happening in the core Twin Cities is consistent with trends in many larger cities. FBI data, which compared crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period the previous year, found that violent crime dropped 8%. Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, with one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, according to one analysis, and every crime except auto theft declined.

Though the statistics show modest improvement, every violent crime does damage to individuals and communities.

"The numbers are better, but we can't do an end zone dance about them," Henry said.

He's absolutely right. Keeping cities safe will require doubling down on effective law enforcement and community efforts to curb crime to make 2024 a better year.