Randy Johnson's Gophers-Rutgers prediction: Who wins and why?

Gophers vs. Rutgers, 1:30 p.m. Saturday, Huntington Bank Stadium, BTN, 100.3-FM

The Gophers limped home from Penn State after absorbing a 45-17 beating that extended their losing streak to three games, their longest since 2018. At 4-3 overall and 1-3 in the Big Ten, Minnesota needs to stop the bleeding against Rutgers (4-3, 1-3), which needs this game for bowl eligibility, too.

Three big story lines

1. Will P.J. Fleck start Athan Kaliakmanis again?

With Tanner Morgan out because of a concussion, Fleck turned to Kaliakmanis, a redshirt freshman, to start at Penn State in front of 108,913. Though Kaliakmanis completed only nine of 22 passes, he led two TD drives and added the threat to run. Expect the call to be a game-time decision.

2. Will the Gophers defense find its September form?

Through September, the Gophers were 4-0 and their defense ranked No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed (187.8 per game). That changed as the schedule stiffened, and they've allowed 436.7 per game in October. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi must get that turned around quickly.

3. Will Mohamed Ibrahim keep his streak going?

Gophers running back Mohamed Ibrahim has surpassed 100 yards rushing in 15 consecutive games, which matches the longest in FBS since Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott had 15 from 2014-15. Ibrahim also needs one TD to reach 44, breaking a tie with Darrell Thompson for the program record.

Two key matchups

Kirk Ciarrocca vs. Joe Harasymiak

Ciarrocca, the Gophers offensive coordinator, faces off against Harasymiak, the former Gophers assistant coach who now coordinates the Rutgers defense. The Scarlet Knights rank seventh nationally in total defense (283.9) and sixth in rushing defense (87.4), so Minnesota will be challenged.

Mark Crawford vs. Adam Korsak

Don't laugh, because these Australian punters could be important if the game becomes a battle of field position. The Gophers' Crawford has seven touchbacks and six punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line among his 18 punts, while the Scarlet Knights' Korsak is averaging 43.4 yards per punt.

One stat that matters

8-for-32 The Gophers' third-down conversion success in October, tied for 122^nd nationally. Overall, they still lead the nation at 58.33% (49-for-84).

The Gophers will win if … they sustain drives on offense, using Ibrahim to wear down the Rutgers defense; they get efficient passing and the threat to run at quarterback, which would play into Kaliakmanis' hands; and they clamp down on explosive plays on defense, something that doomed them at Penn State.

The Scarlet Knights will win if … they get an early lead and create some doubt in the Gophers' minds; their defense shuts down Minnesota's run game; their offense efficiently moves the ball and sustains some drives; and they win the turnover battle.

Prediction

When looking at the schedule before the season started, the Oct. 28 game against Rutgers didn't appear to be a "circle that one'' contest. But with three consecutive losses, the Gophers desperately need to win this game to prevent their once-promising season from spiraling out of control. To accomplish that, Minnesota needs to get back to its basics of running the ball well and playing stout defense.

If Kaliakmanis starts his second consecutive game, the Gophers offense takes on a multidimensional look because of his ability to run the ball. That could go a long way in keeping the Rutgers defense honest and preventing it from focusing solely on Ibrahim.

For the Scarlet Knights, this game means a lot because they still have Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland and Penn State to play, and they need two wins for bowl eligibility.

My expectation: As bad as the past three games have gone for the Gophers, there's still enough talent there to accomplish good things this season. Look for a strong response at home, and maybe it's Kaliakmanis leading it. Gophers 24, Rutgers 17.