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How professional soothsayers prepare for work

Here's a look at how some professional prognosticators – from a money manager to an NFL draft expert – determine what will be.

January 1, 2014 at 6:00PM
Paul Douglas. PREFERRED PHOTO, 2010. ORG XMIT: MIN2013072214533361
Paul Douglas. PREFERRED PHOTO, 2010. ORG XMIT: MIN2013072214533361 (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Ross Levin

Job: Money manager.

Tools: Levin, who was named one of the nation's top financial planners by Barron's, relies heavily on experience. After getting a business degree from the University of Minnesota in 1985, he founded Accredited Investors.

Approach: "We try to make more decisions that are more good than bad rather than right or wrong."

Accuracy: Accredited Investors must be doing something right: It has retained 95 percent of its customers from five years ago, Levin said.

Fallout: "We look at how we could make a better decision. … It's important to evaluate both your process and the decision. You can have a bad decision with a good process, but also a bad decision that come out of a bad process."

Kate Greenway

Job: Tarot card reader and spiritual adviser.

Tools: Greenway says her trust in tarot cards is "complete, totally complete."

Approach: "You can say I'm looking at the weather of the soul, what's underground that people can't see, bringing something up from the unconscious to consciousness."

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Accuracy: Greenway said she's more than 50 percent accurate. "Not 100 percent because that's absurd and people are so complex. … Even after 25 years I'll be blown away by how accurate something is."

Fallout: As many as half of the people who have their fortunes told at the Renaissance Festival are repeat customers. As for others, "If they didn't find [a reading] helpful, chances are I'll never hear from them."

Paul Dergarabedian

Job: Projecting box-office returns for Rentrak, a Los Angeles-based company that provides research and analysis for the entertainment industry.

Tools: He studies past patterns of movie attendance and sales and talks to other industry insiders.

Approach: Dergarabedian has spent two decades in the business, including stints predicting opening weekends for the Associated Press and Hollywood.com. Still, he admits that "a lot of it's your gut. It's an educated guess."

Accuracy: He said the numbers usually land within the range he projects. "Always in the ballpark," he said. "Rarely are you dead on the number."

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Fallout: "Projecting it in a range gives me a little bit of an out. If you say $75 to $80 million and it does $70, nobody's going to get mad."

Shawn Zobel

Job: NFL draft expert, owns Eagan-based Draft Headquarters and consults for pro teams.

Tools: Zobel, who played football when he was young, watches endless hours of game film and scouts every player at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine, where potential draftees' skills are measured and tested.

Approach: For the 250-page annual players' guide he produces, "I do it from the perspective of 'If I was running an NFL team, what would I do, how would I value them?' "

Accuracy: Over the past six years, Zobel has a better record of nailing first-round picks in the exact spot taken (9.67) than ESPN's two experts, Mel Kiper (8.17) and Todd McShay (6.67).

Fallout: He strives to be transparent about how he evaluates players. "The more resources you have, the better you can answer [criticism]," he said. "You have to stick to your guns sometimes and say 'This is how I see this guy.' "

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Paul Douglas

Job: Owner of Paul Douglas Weather Service and meteorologist for the Star Tribune.

Tools: The longtime weather forecaster uses scores of computer models, but said the key is "knowing which ones to trust. That only comes with trial and error. And error and error."

Approach: "We have these big hairy equations. It's really calculus. … The reality is that every day is a new creation. There has never been a day where the weather has been the exact same."

Accuracy: The 24-hour forecast is "88 percent accurate and holding steady," he said. The seven-day forecast is "getting better," he said, but still is only 59 percent accurate.

Fallout: Douglas admits he gets depressed when the forecast is wrong. When confronted, he apologizes and tries to "make the person laugh, defuse the situation," but sometimes he points out the fallibility of predictions. "I might turn it around with 'Hey, how's your fantasy football team working out?' "

Bill Ward

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Ross Levin with Accredited Investors Inc. He is the author of the Star Tribune "Business Forum" article, Sun March 23, 2003, page D4. Handout photo.
Ross Levin with Accredited Investors Inc. He is the author of the Star Tribune "Business Forum" article, Sun March 23, 2003, page D4. Handout photo. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Paul Degarabedian
Paul Degarabedian (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Paul Dergarabedian
Paul Dergarabedian (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Ross Levin
Ross Levin (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Kate Greenway
Kate Greenway (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Shawn Zobel
Shawn Zobel (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Size as needed, Brent Castillo B&W illustration of hands touching a crystal ball. The Wichita Eagle, 1995. With SIMPLIFY-2, Knight-Ridder by Karen Shideler CATEGORY: ILLUSTRATION SUBJECT: SIMPLIFY-2 illus ARTIST: Brent Castillo ORIGIN: Wichita Eagle TYPE: TIFF LZW SIZE: As needed ENTERED: 11/3/95 REVISED: STORY SLUG: SIMPLIFY-2, Knight-Ridder by Karen Shideler illustration,feature,life,stress,depression,business,prediction,futures,stock,stocks,bond,bonds,earnings,economy,GDP,health,medicine,psyc
Size as needed, Brent Castillo B&W illustration of hands touching a crystal ball. The Wichita Eagle, 1995. With SIMPLIFY-2, Knight-Ridder by Karen Shideler CATEGORY: ILLUSTRATION SUBJECT: SIMPLIFY-2 illus ARTIST: Brent Castillo ORIGIN: Wichita Eagle TYPE: TIFF LZW SIZE: As needed ENTERED: 11/3/95 REVISED: STORY SLUG: SIMPLIFY-2, Knight-Ridder by Karen Shideler illustration,feature,life,stress,depression,business,prediction,futures,stock,stocks,bond,bonds,earnings,economy,GDP,health,medicine,psychiatry,Wichita,Eagle,1995,SIMPLIFY,Castillo (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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