Somewhat Soggy With Snow
Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Monday to 7PM Wednesday, which shows our next weather maker moving slowly through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Areas of rain mixed with snow will be possible, the heaviest/steadiest stuff will likely fall along the International Border.
Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's NDFD data, the precipitation potential through Wednesday shows the heaviest steadiest stuff across the northern half of the state. Note that there could be some 1"+ tallies in the Arrowhead, while folks in the Twin Cities metro might be luck to get a couple of tenths of an inch.
Snowfall Potential Through AM Wednesday
This storm system could bring accumulating snow across parts of the northern half the state. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 3" to 6" in the northwestern part of the state.
Weather Outlook for Monday
The weather outlook for Monday shows cool and somewhat soggy weather in place across the region. Monday will be a fairly raw and breezy day for mid April with temps running nearly -5F to -15F below average. Light rain will be possible across parts of Central MN, but rain will mix with snow in the northern part of the state.
Twin Cities April Summary So Far
Here's the Twin Cities weather summary through the first 10 days of April. Note that temps are running nearly +11F above average, which is the 3rd warmest start to any April on record at MSP. We're also running nearly +0.75" above average in the precipitation department and more than -1" below average in the snowfall department.
Monday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's a closer look at our weather conditions for Minneapolis on Monday, which shows cooler than average temps in place through much of the day. Scattered light rain showers will also be possible throughout the day.
Monday Meteograms
Here are the meteorgrams for Minneapolis on Monday, which show cool and cloudy conditions in place for much of the day. There will also be scattered light rain showers possible, but the steadiest rains should stay north of the metro through much of the day on Monday. West to northwesterly winds will be gusty up to near 20mph to 25mph during the afternoon.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature and weather outlook over the next 5 to 7 days. Temps will be quite chilly through the first half of the month with readings nearly -5F to -15F below average for mid April. Areas of rain and snow will be possible through Tuesday before more sunshine slides in Thursday. Weather conditions sour a bit late next week with more rain chances sliding in through the weekend.
2021 Ice Out Dates So Far
According to the MN DNR, most MN Lakes are going ice out nearly 2 weeks earlier than normal this season. Thanks to warmer than normal temps and wetter than normal conditions, quite a few lakes have been going ice out. Mille Lacs Lake was deemed ice out as of April 7th, while the average ice out date is on April 25th. Upper & Lower Red Lake were ice out as of early April, while the average ice out is late April.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Average Ice Out Dates Across the State
Here's a look at the average ice out dates across the state. The orange markers across the southern part of the state indicate average ice out dates typically around the last week of March. We typically see average ice out across parts of central Minnesota and around the Twin Cities during the first couple of weeks of April. Folks across the northern third of the state typically see ice out closer to the start of May.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Spring Leaf Index
If you look close, so of your backyard trees and bushes have actually started to show signs of spring leaves emerging. According to the NPN, this is happening nearly 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
"How do you know when spring has begun? Is it the appearance of the first tiny leaves on the trees, or the first crocus plants peeping through the snow? The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are synthetic measures of these early season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions. These models allow us to track the progression of spring onset across the country. April 5, 2021 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north across the country. After arriving early in southern parts of Southwest and Southeast states, cold temperatures halted the progress of spring leaf out for several days across the northern part of the Southeast, Southern Great Plains, and mid-Atlantic. Spring leaf out is now arriving days to weeks early across the Midwest and Northern Great Plains. Spring bloom has arrived in parts of Southwest and Southeast states. Spring bloom is early in California and Arizona and patchy in Southeast states."
GDD Tracker - Crabgrass Preventer
Thanks to Michigan State University, the GDD Tracker tracks optimal times to put out Crabgrass Preventer for specific zip codes based on soil temps around the region. According to their model, areas in green below show that right now is when you should get Crabgrass Preventer out before it starts emerging this spring. Seems a little early, but recent VERY warm days have been warming up soil temps significantly and crabgrass germinates when soil temperatures hit about 55°F for 24-48 hours. The week ahead will be quite soggy with some 1" to 2" plus rainfall tallies possible. Next weekend looks drier and warmer, so you should be able to get your preventer down next week if needed.
See more from Michigan State University GDD Tracker HERE:
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next couple of weeks. Temps will be running a little cooler during the next week or so with highs only warming into the 40s and 50s. Keep in mind that our average high in the metro is in the mid/upper 50s through the 2nd week of April. By late April, the average high in the metro is in the mid 60s.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps for mid/late April across much of the Central US, while warmer than average temps will be in place across the Western half of the nation.
Weather Models: A Few Slushy Encounters
By Paul Douglas
Welcome to Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In the coming weeks a higher sun angle will heat the lower atmosphere ,allowing thundery thermals of rising air to accelerate and spin. A small percentage of thunderstorms will mutate into "supercells", capable of large hail and tornadoes.
From 1950to 2018 Minnesota averaged 28.2 tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center lists 69 Minnesota tornadoes in 2020, most small and brief.
A La Nina cooling event has energized jet stream winds, resulting in swarms of severe storm events across the southern USA. It's still unclear whether this spike will migrate north over time, but vigilance and a mild case of paranoia is appropriate.
The pattern looks March-like into next week with a few showers today, ending as a slushy mix Tuesday. Plowable snow is expected over the Red River Valley. ECMWF spins up another slushy event roughly one week out,|PART6:but I'm not panicked (yet).
Unnerving wintry" death-rattles" should taper by early May. In theory.
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Unsettled, few showers. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 50. High: 50.
MONDAY NIGHT: Chance of rain/snow overnight. Winds: WNW 15-25. Low: 32.
TUESDAY: Rain-snow mix. Slushy lawns? Winds: NW 15-25. High: 39.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, a dry sky. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 46.
THURSDAY: Sunny peeks, hints of spring. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 36. High: 54.
FRIDAY: Clouds linger, cool breeze. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 35. High: 53.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 54.
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, probably dry. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 37. High: 55.
This Day in Weather History
April 12th
1931: July-like temperatures are felt across the area with 90 degrees at Beardsley in west central Minnesota.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 12th
Average High: 56F (Record: 83F set in 1931)
Average Low: 36F (Record: 12F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 0.67" set in 1983
Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1962
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 12th
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:55pm
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 22 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hours & 58 minutes
Moon Phase for April 12th at Midnight
1.2 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"The green flash image at the top of this post was taken by Jim Grant, an EarthSky friend on Facebook. He captured it off the coast of Ocean Beach, California, and identified it as a mock mirage green flash. It's not hard to see a green flash with the eye alone, when sky conditions are right, and when you're looking toward a very clear and very distant horizon. That's why those who live near an ocean tend to report green flashes most often. A sea horizon is the best place to see them. The video below, posted to EarthSky by Vladek in 2016, is an excellent example of the experience of seeing a green flash:"
National High Temps Monday
Here's the weather outlook on Monday, which shows warm temps continuing across much of the southern US. Meanwhile, folks in the Upper Midwest and High Plains will be running below average for the middle part of April.
National Forecast Map For Monday
The weather map on Monday shows unsettled weather in place across much of the northern tier of the nation. Areas of rain and snow will be possible along and west of the Upper Mississippi Valley, with minor accumulations possible. Areas of showers and storms will be possible in the southern US, some of which could be strong to severe in Texas.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through Tuesday. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the Southeastern US with locally heavy rains.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook over the next 7 days shows areas of heavy rains across parts of the Gulf Coast States. There could also be some heavier precipitation across the Central Rockies, the northern tier of the nation and into the Northeast.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
Here's the extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead. Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible across parts of the Rockies and High Plains. There may also be some minor accumulations near the international border in North Dakota and Minnesota.
Climate Stories
"These top gardening tips for spring weather changes will help your plants to cope with unpredictable weather"
"Spring weather changes are no reason to accept that your plants will suffer, so follow these top expert tips for protecting your plants from weather fluctuations. Spring weather changes can confuse even a seasoned gardener. When one week brings unseasonable warmth and another, a hard frost, it can be difficult to know how best to protect garden plants from the sudden temperature fluctuations. Spring is also known for uneven rain distribution, with weeks of drought often giving way to heavy rain. However, there's no need to resign yourself to your spring garden ideas not turning out as planned. Follow these expert tips for protecting your plants against the effects of spring weather changes – it's easier than you think."
See more from Gardening ETC. HERE:
"THE AMAZING SOLAR DESALINATION SKYLIGHT OFFERS HOPE TO MILLIONS WITHOUT CLEAN WATER"
"1 in 3 people around the world do not have access to safe drinking water. This shocking statistic was released by UNICEF and the World Health Organization in 2019, and it is likely that the pandemic has only worsened the situation. It's clear that providing safe water for all is one of the most pressing problems in public health. Now one design student thinks he has found a solution - and it's cheap to produce and free to use. Architecture student Henry Glogau has developed a 'skylight' which produces drinking water alongside light. Even more impressively, he passed on his design know-how to local people in Chile so they can build their own skylights using materials they already have, like old plastic bottles. HOW DOES IT WORK? The Solar Desalination Skylight works by evaporating seawater using heat from the sun. During the day, seawater trickles through a pipe into the bowl-shaped skylight. The salt and pollutants are removed and clean drinking water is extracting via a tap at the Skylight base. The leftover salt brine creates 'sewater batteries' which then power the light at night. Henry plays down his invention, "It was not about trying to reinvent the wheel by any means. But it was about trying to combine these simple ideas, which have been around for hundreds of years, and apply them into a context that is not currently using something like this"
"Australian bush fires warmed the stratosphere for six months"
"A team of researchers from Jinan University, the University of Colorado, Boulder, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, has found evidence indicating that the massive bush fires that burned from late 2019 through early 2020 in parts of Australia produced so much smoke particulates that they increased the temperature of the stratosphere in the region for approximately six months. In their paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the group describes their work, which involved using data from the wildfires and an aerosol model to calculate how much particulate matter made its way into the stratosphere and the impact it had. The wildfires in Australia burned from approximately December of 2019 to January of 2020 and destroyed trees, brush and homes covering approximately 14 million acres—they also killed 20 people. So large were the fires that the smoke could be seen by astronauts aboard the International Space Station. The government of Australia calculated the costs of the fires to be approximately $103 billion. In this new effort, the researchers have found that black particulate matter in the smoke made its way into the stratosphere, leading to a slight temperature increase."
