The Vikings have the second-best record in the NFC and are tied for the second-best record in the NFL, but you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks they are close to being the second-best team in the league.
What are the dream scenarios (and the nightmare ones) for the Vikings in the playoffs?
If the Vikings are going to make a deep postseason run, they will probably need some of the same fortune they've enjoyed during the regular season.
December 23, 2022 at 4:19PM
If a charmed season of whimsy is going to turn into a significant postseason run, the Vikings will likely need the sorts of breaks leading into and during the playoffs that they have received so far in compiling an 11-3 record.
While I think the season will be remembered fondly no matter what happens in the playoffs, there is certainly a sliding scale based on what happens in the postseason.
As such, I talked on Friday's Daily Delivery podcast about the dream (and nightmare) scenarios for how the playoff seeding and schedule could play out over the last three weeks of the regular season.
Best-case scenario: Barring the very unlikely prospect of getting the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye — a 1% likelihood, per FiveThirtyEight, that would require the Vikings to win out and the Eagles to lose out — the best thing for the Vikings would be ...
- Hanging onto the No. 2 seed, which would guarantee the Vikings a division round home game if they advance through the first weekend.
- Getting to play a mediocre No. 7 seed like Washington or Seattle in the first round.
- Having the No. 6 seed knock off the No. 3 49ers in the first round, giving the Vikings an easier path to the NFC title game, while the No. 4 seed knocks off Dallas.
- Having the Eagles lose in the division round, so the NFC title game is in Minneapolis. It's very unlikely, but there is a way the Vikings could avoid the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles on a path to the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Again, we're dealing with the realistic nightmare situations ...
- The Vikings fall to the No. 3 seed while the Giants overcome Dallas in the standings. That would make the Cowboys the No. 6 seed and set up a rematch of that 40-3 nightmare in the very first playoff game. This scenario becomes more plausible if the Vikings lose to the Giants on Saturday while Dallas loses to the Eagles.
- Or ... the Vikings, either as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, wind up playing an on-the-rise team in the wild card round. The Lions seem like a particularly bad matchup, while Green Bay — however unlikely their playoff hopes are — would conjure up a lot of unpleasant thoughts.
The likely reality is this: The Vikings will be favored in the wild card round and should be able to secure one playoff win. After that, a divisional round matchup could be against a team far better than the Vikings, no matter what the records say.
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