Twins' Pablo López takes the mound as dueling pressures mount: big contract, Luis Arraez's hot start

Twins fans are familiar with FOMO — the fear of missing out. Particularly when it comes to playoff victories over, oh, the last 20 years.

Now they're recoiling from another form of agita, angst, anger and acronym.

FOMAO.

Fear Of Moving Another Ortiz.

In Minnesota, the former is pronounced "Foh-Moe,'' the latter "Nooooooo.''

After the 2002 season, the Twins released David Ortiz, a move that bothered no one at the time. As an unrestricted free agent, no one would give him a two-year contract for $2 million. He signed with the Red Sox as a backup first baseman. A half-season later, he became the best clutch hitter in baseball.

Current Twins management is hoping that Luis Arraez doesn't put the AO in FOMAO.

This winter, the Twins traded Arraez, coming off a season in which he hit .316, to the Marlins for talented young pitcher Pablo López and two quality minor league prospects.

It was a logical deal at the time. Arraez is a singles hitter without a strong defensive position. The Twins are loaded with young hitters and hitting prospects, and were in need of rotation depth, and are constantly looking to upgrade their prospect pool for future seasons and trades.

On Tuesday night at Target Field, López will take the mound and the numbers on everyone's mind will begin with a "4.''

Arraez is trying to become the first player since Ted Williams in 1941 to bat .400 or higher in a season (Williams hit .406 that summer). Through the weekend, he was batting .397. He is becoming the modern version of Tony Gwynn.

López's ERA starts with a 4 — at 4.25.

This pair of 4s makes the Arraez deal look misguided, in particular because the Twins have had such a terrible stretch offensively. Arraez's average is far superior to any big league regular's, and his OPS is .931 — far better than that of any Twins regular.

Arraez would be one of the Twins' best players this season. He would have provided competitive at-bats and production while those around him were struggling, and he would have made a difference for the Twins in the standings over the past 10 weeks.

López pitched well enough early in this season that the Twins rewarded him with the largest pitching contract in franchise history, to be their long-term ace. He has not borne that burden well. His ERAs by month: 0.00 in March, 4.70 in April, 4.25 in May and 4.97 in June.

If Arraez is going to be the best pure hitter in baseball and López is going to pitch like a No. 4 starter, the Marlins will win this deal.

But is that what's ahead?

Arraez is almost certain to deal with a market correction at some point. Nobody has hit .370 in the majors since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. Nobody has hit .380 or .390 since Gwynn in 1994.

The more important question, for both the Twins and perceptions of their deal, is that López starts pitching like the ace they think he is.

Currently, he is being plagued by the one bad pitch or bad inning that ruins an outing. He needs to prove that those are aberrations, not embedded characteristics of his game.

Of course, Arraez faced many similar questions as a Twin. Could he stay healthy? Did he have a position? Could he spank enough singles to justify playing him every day at a corner position instead of a power hitter?

Over the past year and a half, Arraez has proved his worth. Now it's time for López to do the same.

The two are not dissimilar. Both are likable, professional Venezuelans who seem to love the game and their teammates.

The Twins need López to do more than justify their trade of Arraez, no matter Arraez's average.

They need him to lead a rotation for a team with postseason hopes.

Line up the best version of López with Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and closer Jhoan Duran, and most of the Twins' innings pitched in a short playoff series would come from All-Star caliber arms.

Tuesday would be a good time for López to start holding up his end of the bargain.