The date we should have realized the 2021 Twins were in trouble — in hindsight — was Feb. 15.

It was reported on that date that the Twins had agreed with veteran right-hander Matt Shoemaker on a one-year, $2 million contract — the kind of deal that meant he was likely to make the team, and likely to be a member of the rotation if he did make the team since that has been his primary role as a major league pitcher.

The deal was basically ignored at the time, though. Many of us were too busy thinking about the top part of the rotation — one that would soon get rave reviews in spring training once Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios started throwing and theoretically would be bolstered by veterans Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ.

Those first four had the potential to be better than league average — maybe not as good as 2020, when the Twins were No. 5 in MLB in starter ERA (3.54), but good enough to get to the trade deadline and add another front-line piece for a major push to the World Series.

Maeda's dismal season-to-date (5.56 ERA) would have been hard to predict, and the Twins could have reasonably expected more from Happ (5.83 ERA).

But in retrospect, the perilously thin nature of their starting rotation was revealed with the signing of Shoemaker — a pitcher whose last combination of decent results and health came a full five years ago. Counting on him to have a bounceback season and stay healthy at age 34 was the longest of long shots.

Predictably, that strange gamble did not pay off. The Twins gave Shoemaker 11 starts, and they won just three of those games, before moving him to the bullpen. When that didn't work any better, they designated Shoemaker for assignment on Thursday.

Shoemaker has been a convenient scapegoat for the Twins' woes and a rotation whose ERA has ballooned to No. 25 in MLB (5.09).

But the fault lies as much with performance as it does with roster construction.

When you're counting on something that you have no right to think will come true, that's a hope and not a plan.