We don't know what we don't know. Some weather predictions are harder than others. Wednesday's severe weather outbreak was an example of the chaotic factors that can influence weather outcomes.

Morning convection (thunderstorms) often lower the risk of late afternoon storms bubbling up. Why? They cool the atmosphere, meaning less instability and smaller chance of storms. Weather models did a good job showing the first wave of morning storms, and NOAA Storm Prediction Center showed northern Minnesota at higher risk than southern counties. So often meteorologists have the right idea, but the details can be elusive.

Enjoy some atmospheric peace and quiet Thursday and Friday. Showers pop Thursday near the Iowa border, otherwise some sunshine and low 80s. More storms flare up Saturday, probably the wetter, noisier day of the weekend. Seeing the sun is more likely on Sunday.

Looks like 90s next week, with a heat index approaching 100.

We may have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. This promises to be a long hurricane season.