Thank goodness I'm not all that much of a gamblin' man.
Will the Timberwolves win at least 35 games this year? Don't bet on it
Preseason wagering over-under win totals can tell us a lot about how a team has fared historically. For the Wolves, that history is not at all kind.
August 17, 2021 at 1:51PM
At various points in this blog's history, I have been accused of expressing too much optimism when it comes to the fortunes of the Timberwolves. If I utter or write the words "The Wolves might have turned the corner" or "The Wolves could be better than you think," it is likely a reminder that you should check your smoke detector batteries.
And ignore me.
But at least — at least — I have not put my money where my mouth is.
You see, PointsBet recently released over-under victory total numbers for every NBA team for the upcoming season. The Wolves' number is 34.5 — which means that if you think they will win at least 35 games, you would bet the "over," while if you think they will win 34 or fewer you would bet the "under."
There are valid reasons to think the Wolves could exceed that rather modest total. After all, a 35-47 baseline record is not very good but should be in reach if Karl-Anthony Towns stays healthy and Anthony Edwards continues his upward trend.
But the historical trend line, as I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast, suggests that you should be wary of any relative optimism (but please, check your smoke detector batteries anyway).
If you don't see the podcast player, click here to listen.
Thanks to data from Basketball Reference, I can tell you that the Wolves have only hit the "over" relative to their preseason projected wagering total in three of the last 17 seasons (dating back to the season after their Western Conference Finals appearance).
The last time they did it? 2015-16, when Sam Mitchell stepped in and led the team to 29 wins (beating their 27.5-win preseason total). They also made it in 2011-12 (26 vs. 23.5) and 2007-08 (22 vs. 19.5). They were close in the good Jimmy Butler year (47 vs. 48.5) and the OK Rick Adelman year (40 vs. 40.5).
But on average, they have finished with about 4.5 fewer wins per season than their preseason over-under number. Last year? The preseason number was 29.5, and they finished with 23.
I suppose you could say none of that has much to do with this season and that ever year is its own thing.
But I would also say this: Feel free to have Wolves optimism. It's a free country, and it's more fun than gloom and doom.
Just don't bet on it.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
