What are the three worst-case scenarios for Vikings in the draft?

In a sign of the default pessimism of Vikings fans, most of the correspondence I received after writing Tuesday about the best-case scenarios for Minnesota in the NFL draft was an effort to douse any optimism with cold water.

A sample email: “Whether matching a quarterback to draft pick value or trading down to add talent elsewhere, there’s a complication to the Vikings draft. This front office can’t evaluate talent.”

Another: “Lets not get too excited. It seems History has taught us almost every time the Vikings have given away a boatload of picks it has BACKFIRED!”

Indeed, the long-range worst possible scenario is that the Vikings draft a QB who doesn’t turn out to be the right one. If that happens, they will almost certainly languish through a longer rebuild and need to draft another quarterback in a few years under a new regime.

But we won’t know that outcome for a long time. What we’re focused on now is the process.

That said, it’s possible draft night itself will go sideways for the Vikings. With that in mind, here is the other side of this weeks discussion: the three worst-case scenarios for the Vikings in the draft, as I talked about on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

Tie-1: The Vikings get shut out of future trades up the draft board and aren’t able to take a quarterback they think can be a franchise player. Nobody has to trade with the Vikings. What if the top five teams stay put -- including the top three taking quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye -- and then the Giants pick J.J. McCarthy at No. 6. Or the Giants package No. 6 and future picks to move up to No. 4.

Simply put, if the Vikings have a short list of potential franchise QBs, and they aren’t able to draft one, their rebuild will be delayed by a year without a guarantee they will be able to get their franchise QB in 2025.

Tie-1: The Vikings are forced to massively overpay to move up to take their guy. I’ve seen multiple mock drafts lately suggesting Minnesota will need to offer picks 11 and 23 plus next year’s first rounder just to move up to No. 5 (from the Chargers) to take McCarthy. One of trade mocks is from ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., even as he notes McCarthy is the No. 14 overall prospect on his board.

So the Vikings, if they are desperate enough, could trade their original pick plus two more first rounders for a QB who would be a slight reach even at No. 11? A team that has so many other holes on its roster would have to be absolutely certain about McCarthy to do that, and even then it would hurt.

If there’s any good news? The first two scenarios can’t happen simultaneously. The Vikings can’t miss out on a QB and overpay for one. The bad news is either of those scenarios could set the franchise back.

3. Draft night starts out looking like it’s lining up in the Vikings’ favor, but they get greedy and try to swing trades for extra value and end up missing out on the guy they really wanted. I don’t think this will happen, but you never know.

Here are four more things to know today:

*Is this the final straw with Emanuel Reynoso and Minnesota United? Jon Marthaler frames up Reynoso’s latest absence nicely. We’ll talk about that more on a podcast later this week.

*Jim Souhan joined Wednesday’s show from Augusta with several good story lines from The Masters.

*Souhan and I also talked about the struggles of the Twins. His big takeaway: He doesn’t worry about stats or a team’s record this early in the year. But the eye test shows the Twins are not taking good at bats, which is a major big picture concern.

*Randy Johnson will join Thursday’s show to talk about the Frozen Four in St. Paul as well as some interesting offseason Gophers men’s hockey developments.