Behind Tim Walz’s decision to drop out of the governor’s race

Gov. Tim Walz’s decision to end his re-election campaign appeared, at first, to be the culmination of weeks of punishing headlines about the state’s sprawling fraud crisis and his escalating feud with the Trump administration.

His Jan. 5 announcement came just four months after he launched his bid for a third term, a reversal so abrupt it shocked political insiders and fundamentally reoriented the race in ways that could reverberate in Minnesota and Washington.

But before the public unraveling, there had been a quieter, more personal reckoning. Walz had been privately deliberating with aides and his family since last summer about whether he wanted to serve 12 consecutive years.

This account is based on interviews with multiple people close to the governor and nearly two dozen prominent DFLers dating back to last summer.

During his time in the governor’s office, Walz dealt with the crises of COVID-19 and civil unrest, signed a parade of progressive policies into law in a landmark legislative session and ascended to the national stage as the 2024 Democratic vice-presidential nominee. But then he suffered a bruising national defeat and, several months later, a devastating loss.

The June political assassination of his close friend, former House Speaker Melissa Hortman, knocked him off his axis. He considered her his closest governing partner and struggled to imagine navigating state budgets and Capitol dynamics without her.

“She is irreplaceable, both as a friend and a person but she’s irreplaceable in this building,” Walz said in a July interview at the State Capitol.

The governor had viewed Hortman as a possible running mate and eventual successor before her death, according to people familiar with his thinking. He pushed back self-imposed deadlines to announce his re-election plans from early summer to after Labor Day. With the State Fair rapidly approaching, Walz had to make a decision.

He and his team worried there wasn’t another DFL heavyweight who could take his place, so Walz forged ahead with a re-election campaign, even as a Minnesota Star Tribune poll showed about half of Minnesotans didn’t think he should seek a third term.

“None of us make our best decisions while we’re grieving,” former GOP state Rep. Pat Garofalo said.

Within a few months, the ground shifted beneath Walz. The Trump administration turned Minnesota’s welfare fraud crisis — Walz’s biggest political vulnerability — into a national story. Republicans started to publicly call for him to resign from office, including U.S. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, a frequent critic of the governor.

“He should resign, he’s a total embarrassment,” Emmer told Fox News days before Walz’s announcement. “It’s absolutely criminal what’s been happening.”

In December, Trump attacked Walz with a slur that’s used to denigrate people with disabilities. Walz, whose son, Gus, has a nonverbal learning disorder, condemned Trump’s insult and lamented that some motorists were driving by his home and shouting the slur out their windows.

The criticism of Walz escalated the day after Christmas, when conservative YouTuber Nick Shirley posted a 43-minute video that raised new concerns about fraud in Minnesota’s child care assistance program. The video garnered millions of views and went viral on social media.

As the nation’s attention fixed on Minnesota and Walz’s feud with Trump continued in public view, people in the governor’s orbit began to fear for his safety, according to a person familiar with their thinking. Walz worried about his family as they received threats.

“I’ve got a little bit of protection now. My family, not so much,” Walz said.

His daughter, Hope, spoke out about threats she had faced in an appearance on the Minnesota-based OneMinuteTours podcast on Jan. 5.

Walz said he believed the Trump administration was trying to punish Minnesota as part of a “concerted effort to try and destroy the president’s opponents.”

“It became apparent to me that he was going to do that with me being there,” Walz said.

Republicans said Walz had nobody to blame but himself for the situation. The governor and his administration, they said, were too slow to act on stopping the largest social services fraud in Minnesota history.

Over the holidays, the governor and his family decided to seek an exit. Walz invited U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has long been the DFL’s most popular politician, to the governor’s residence.

Other candidates had been mentioned as possible contenders for governor, including Secretary of State Steve Simon and Attorney General Keith Ellison, but none had Klobuchar’s long record of statewide electoral success.

“I just feel, along with my family, that it’s the best decision for Minnesota,” Walz said.

The day after he announced his departure from the governor’s race, Walz held a news conference in Minneapolis about the state’s new paid family and medical leave program. He appeared unburdened as he played with a cooing baby, touted the new program that could become a signature piece of his legacy and let loose on Republicans. One of Walz’s aides said it was the happiest he had seen the governor in months.

Asked what he’ll do after his term ends next January, Walz teased a return to his roots.

“To be candid with you, what I’m really good at is, I’m a really good geography teacher,” said Walz, who spent two decades in the classroom before his first run for office. “I think that’s something where I would find the joy in getting back in there, trying to teach.”

Within days, Walz would be thrust into a new showdown between state and federal leaders over the fatal shooting of a 37-year-old Minneapolis woman by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent.