Gov. Tim Walz wavering on third term, setting off quiet scramble within DFL

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is privately wavering on whether to seek re-election after previously signaling he was likely to run, a shift that’s prompting intense speculation about his political future and jockeying among Democrats with ambitions for higher office.

Walz has gone from walking up to the line of declaring he will run for a third term to privately questioning in recent weeks if he wants to serve for 12 consecutive years, according to interviews with nearly a dozen people in the party, including some who are close to the governor. The DFL governor has pushed back self-imposed deadlines to announce his plans from the early summer to after Labor Day.

Walz was knocked off course by the June 14 assassination of Melissa Hortman, who was his close friend and governing partner in the Minnesota House, according to several people with knowledge of his thought process. His reluctance also comes at a time when he could face headwinds if he runs for re-election, after a failed vice presidential bid that eroded his popularity in parts of the state.

His hesitation has been noticed by party activists and officials, several of whom put the odds of him running in 2026 at 50-50.

A bench of Democrats is eager to run if the seat opens up in a state where Republicans haven’t won the governor’s office in nearly 20 years.

“There are people clearly ready to jump if he makes the decision not to run,” said former Minnesota DFL chair Mike Erlandson, who added he’s heard of some Democrats who are “rearranging the deck chairs” ahead of Walz’s announcement. “There will be a furious race, potentially.”

Walz told the Minnesota Star Tribune in July that Hortman is “irreplaceable” and her death “could be a reason to do it again and a reason not to.” People close to Walz said he viewed Hortman as a possible gubernatorial successor and running mate, since current Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is running for the U.S. Senate.

The Walz campaign is preparing as if he is going to run. A senior advisor to the campaign said Walz raised more than $1 million this summer. The advisor said they’re also interviewing candidates for the role of campaign manager.

“Governor Walz is focused on the future of Minnesota — building better schools, safeguarding against Republican attacks on health care, and expanding greater economic opportunity for all,” Walz’s spokesman, Teddy Tschann, said in a statement Thursday. “He’s energized by the enthusiastic support Minnesotans have shown for his vision.”

If Walz doesn’t run, his departure could trigger a domino effect of statewide office openings. Party insiders widely believe Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon and Attorney General Keith Ellison could both run for governor if Walz steps aside, creating additional statewide vacancies.

Asked Tuesday if he would run for governor if Walz stepped aside, Ellison said, “I’m not ready to make any news about that today.”

Earlier this year, Ellison indicated he planned to run for re-election as attorney general.

Other Democrats who have been floated for governor include U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter.

Asked if she is considering running for governor if Walz decides not to, Klobuchar would not say. Instead, she said she hopes Walz runs for re-election and that she thinks he will.

A person close to Carter said he’s strongly considering running for governor, and that he had been gearing up for a gubernatorial run since earlier this year when Walz was considering running for U.S. Senate.

Carter, who is facing a challenge from his former aide, state Rep. Kaohly Vang Her, said in a text message late Thursday that he “100%” plans to support Walz, though he did not elaborate on whether he was considering running for governor if Walz steps aside. He applauded Walz as an “amazing partner & friend” whom he hopes and thinks will run for re-election.

Some Democrats are eyeing other statewide offices in the event of a shuffle at the top of the ticket.

“I’ve heard the rumors like everyone else has,” Weisbuch said, referring to the possibility of Walz not seeking a third term.

Weisbuch said he will only run for secretary of state if Simon steps aside.

DFL state Rep. Emma Greenman, a voting rights attorney, told the Star Tribune that people have encouraged her to run for secretary of state or for attorney general if the offices open up.

Other possible candidates for attorney general include former DFL House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler and Democratic state Rep. Zack Stephenson, among others.

The reshuffling from a Walz departure could be reminiscent of 2018, when then-Attorney General Lori Swanson announced she would run for governor instead of re-election. Her departure prompted Ellison to run for attorney general instead of re-election to Congress and led to Rep. Ilhan Omar running for and winning Ellison’s congressional seat.

“I think this could be an opportunity where you have at least two and very likely four constitutional offices open,” Amara said.

Another statewide office, the Office of the State Auditor, could open up as well. State Auditor Julie Blaha hasn’t been sending out fundraising emails and is unlikely to run for re-election, according to DFL sources familiar with her decision making.

“It’s going to open the floodgates to a lot of folks,” Amara said of the possible vacancies.