Minnesota hasn’t elected a GOP governor in almost 20 years. Can Republicans break the streak?

Minnesota Republicans think they could have their best chance in years to take back the governorship if Tim Walz attempts a risky third run for office next fall.

But it’s unclear if conservatives in the state will be ready to capitalize on the opportunity.

The party, which hasn’t won any statewide office since 2006, is low on cash and struggling to gain ground in the metro. Top leaders are still battling an activist base that has made it difficult for candidates with broad appeal to win the nomination. So far, few Republicans have stepped forward to run.

“We need additional people to jump into the race,” said Amy Koch, a Republican operative and former Minnesota Senate majority leader. “Folks have to get in, they have to be able to raise money.”

With 15 months until Election Day, the GOP field for governor is thin and largely familiar, a symptom of the party’s broader challenges. Top-tier prospects such as U.S. Reps. Tom Emmer and Pete Stauber ruled out running for governor earlier this year, choosing to stay in their safe seats during a midterm election that could be difficult for their party.

The most prominent Republicans in the race are Scott Jensen and Kendall Qualls. Jensen is a Chaska physician who lost to Walz by more than 7 percentage points in 2022. Qualls, a businessman, lost the GOP endorsement to Jensen that same year.

Former U.S. Naval intelligence officer Phillip Parrish and retired mixed martial arts fighter Brad Kohler are also running.

“Republicans have a great opportunity,” said Preya Samsundar, a GOP operative in Minnesota. “But … you’re going to need a candidate who’s not dogged by past baggage.”

Walz will face intense scrutiny if he runs for a historic third consecutive term, with a long record for Republicans to attack. A June poll by the Minnesota Star Tribune found at least 6 in 10 registered voters outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties said they disapproved of Walz’s performance, including those in outer-ring suburbs.

Republicans think he’s also more vulnerable after his failed bid for vice president last fall, which prompted a much closer look at his record as governor and previous service in Congress.

Another factor that could play into the race is President Donald Trump, who has attacked Walz as a “terrible governor” and could decide to throw his full support behind a challenger.

“If I’m another candidate, I’m reaching out to Trump’s people,” Koch said. “They do seem to have beef.”

“If the Republicans can put up a strong viable candidate against Walz, I think he’s in for a heck of a race,” Schultz said.

One issue Republicans have struggled with is their endorsement process, which carries a lot of weight with primary voters.

Activists who decide who the party backs often prioritize conservative credentials, seeking candidates who will take hardline stances on issues such as abortion or — since Trump’s takeover of the national party — election denialism, even if it hurts them in the general election.

Jensen, who last won the GOP nomination, has previously said he felt pressured by party activists on the issue of abortion during the 2022 campaign. Democrats hammered Jensen that year for saying he would try to ban abortion if elected.

In a recent interview, Jensen said his second bid for governor won’t be “confined by partisan rhetoric.” He said he now considers abortion to be “settled law” in Minnesota, and that he would not endorse a party platform that opposes gay marriage.

“This is the problem with MN ‘Republicans.’ Their brand means absolutely nothing and is indistinguishable from the Democrat platform,” Mortensen said.

Robbins could face similar pushback from the party’s right flank if she jumps into the governor’s race. The Maple Grove Republican, who chairs the House Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Committee, served as Minnesota chair of Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential campaign.

“I think they might view her with some suspicion,” Schultz said of GOP activists loyal to Trump.

Qualls, who came just short of winning the endorsement in 2022, said he still has strong support among activists, including some who previously supported Jensen.

“Many of them don’t want to see that movie again,” Qualls said, in a dig at Jensen’s second campaign.

Qualls said he has twice as many campaign volunteers this time around and is exceeding previous fundraising numbers, though he wouldn’t specify how much he’s raised.

His core message, he said, will center on lowering the cost of living, reducing crime and improving the education system. Qualls said he wants Minneapolis to feel safe again and would seek to hire and deploy more state-level law enforcement to the city.

But name recognition will be a challenge for Qualls, who isn’t well-known outside party circles. His fundraising ability is also a question mark.

Republicans will face a prolific fundraiser in Walz if he runs for re-election. His campaign had $1 million in the bank at the end of last year.

In an interview last month, Walz predicted he will win if he runs again and warned potential challengers they would face the “best fundraiser that ever sat in this office.”

Whoever emerges as the GOP front-runner will need to be a strong fundraiser themselves, because they likely won’t be able to depend on the state Republican Party for substantial support.

The Republican Party of Minnesota had just over $59,000 in its federal bank account at the end of June, according to its most recent campaign finance report. The Minnesota DFL had more than $2.7 million.

The DFL had another $2.2 million in its state campaign account at the end of last year. The Minnesota GOP ended last year with about $2,100 in its state account.

Koch said the ideal GOP candidate for governor would have a little bit of everything: good name recognition, minimal baggage, fundraising prowess and broad appeal.

She believes Demuth, the state House speaker, could be the candidate who fits that bill.