80s on Wednesday, slush potential by Monday

Enjoy a taste of early June (without the humidity or bugs) because we cool off late in the week. A few showers and T-storms are possible late Friday, with rain lingering into Saturday.

April 12, 2023 at 2:30AM
Jet Contrails on Tuesday (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Spring Has Sprung In A Hurry!

It took a while, but we finally got some much needed spring warmth. Unfortunately, it's coming in a hurry with our first 50F, 60F, 70F and 80F (possibly), all happening within a week or so. Our first 50F came nearly 1 month later than normal, while our first 60F came nearly 2 weeks later than normal. Our first 70F occurred on Monday, which is only a few days, but our first 80F could happen this week and it would be nearly 2 to 3 weeks ahead of schedule... How about that?!

Spring Has Sprung (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

According to NOAA's WPC, the extended precipitation outlook for Minnesota doesn't look as impressive as it did earlier this week, but it looks like we'll still get some decent precipitation. A bigger storm system looks to drift into town late week and into the weekend ahead with some 0.50" liquid tallies, especially across the northern half of the state. Some locations across central and southern Minnesota may even get close to an inch of liquid as well. Stay tuned...

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

3rd Snowiest Winter on Record

Just a reminder that MSP has seen nearly 90" of snow this season, which is the 3rd snowiest winter season on record. We need 5.4" more get into the 2nd spot and 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.

3rd Snowiest Winter on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

As of Monday, April 10th, the MSP Airport officially dropped to 0" of snow on the ground. However, there is still quite a bit across the northern half of the state, in Wisconsin and also across the UP of Michigan.

Snow Depth as of Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Pack Water Equivalent

According to the National Weather Service, there is still a lot of water locked in the snow pack. SWE stands for Snow Water Equivalent and as you can see in the figure below, several inches of water is locked in the snow pack across much of the state. With much warmer temps in the forecast over the next several days, a lot of water will be entering the river systems with flooding a growing potential over the coming days and weeks.

Snow Pack Water Equivalent (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Flood Outlook

According to the National Weather Service, a number of river gauges around the region will be entering flood stage here over the next few days. Some spots will be at Moderate and even Major flood stage, which could cause issues in a few flood prone communities.

Flooding Forecast (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Elevated UV Index

The sun is quite a bit stronger now than it was a few weeks ago and with warmer temps in the forecast, people will likely be wandering outdoors a little more freely this week. With that being said, it'll be important to be sun aware as the UV Index will be at elevated levels this week. Make sure you're taking the proper precautions with your sensitive skin.

UV Index For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of 60s and 70s through the week ahead, which will be some of the warmest weather we've seen since October and early November of last fall. Note that on Wednesday, we could see our first 80F reading, which would be the first since October 11th, 2022. Unfortunately, the quick warm up could lead to an increasing flood threat for maybe communities that live by rivers and streams over the coming days and weeks. Temps will take a hit by the weekend and into early next week with readings back in the 40s and 50s, which will be below average for this time of the year.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, April 11th will be very warm for this time of the year. In fact, we could have a record with a high reaching the mid 80s. Note that the record highs is 83F set in 1931. Southwesterly winds will be breezy once again with some 20mph to near 30mph gusts possible with mostly sunny skies.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

Temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 70s and 80s across much of the state, which will be nearly +15F to +30F above average for mid April some locations across the southern part of the state, including near the Twin Cities could warm into the low/mid 80s. Record highs may also be possible for locations like Minneapolis, Rochester, and Sioux Falls, SD.

Highs vs Record on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Wednesday will start around 60F in the morning and will warm quickly into the mid 80s by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with a few clouds from time to time. Southwesterly winds will be gusty with winds frequently up to 20mph to 30mph through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 10, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north. After arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, spring has slowed in the eastern U.S. Spring is 11 days late in Denver, CO, 2 days late in Chicago, IL, and 2 days early in Albany, NY. The West is mostly late. Yakima, WA is 12 days late, Boise, ID is 20 days late. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. St. Louis, MO is 4 days early, Redding, CA is 17 days late. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."

Status of Spring (National Phenology Network/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Very warm and near record temps will continue on Wednesday across the Upper Midwest ahead of a bigger storm system that will move in late week and into the weekend. This storm will bring gusty winds with a rain/snow mix across the Midwest. The heaviest snow looks to stay well north of the Twin Cities. Temps will be much cooler this weekend and into next week.

Extended Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will warm into the 80s through midweek, which will be nearly +25F to +30F above average. The high The record high for Minneapolis on Wednesday, April 11th is 83F set in 1968. Late week and into the weekend ahead will see a cooling trend with temperatures dropping to below average readings once again.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The next few days will remain dry and very mild with record warmth possible, especially on Wednesday. A bigger storm system will drift into the region late week and into the weekend ahead with a chance of rain and snow. Note that temps will drop quite a bit and will actually be below average once again.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the nation and especially across the western US. Warmer than average temps will be in place across the Southern US, including the Gulf Coast States.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the nation and especially in the Western US and Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

80s Today - Slush Potential by Monday
By Paul Douglas

Winter isn't a season - it's an occupation. And we rarely "ease into spring". It's either on or off. Like flipping a switch. Case in point: 2023.

Our first metro 50F was April 2. First 60 was last Saturday, first 70 was Monday, and we enjoyed our first 80-degree high at MSP yesterday. Talk about a fast-forward spring! This was the 4th fastest "first 50 to first 80F reading" at MSP, happening in a scant 9 days, according to Praedictix.

Enjoy a taste of early June today (without the humidity or bugs) because we cool off late in the week. A few showers and T-storms are possible late Friday, with rain lingering into Saturday.

A storm forecast to stall over Lake Superior may dump heavy snow on parts of Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead late Sunday into Monday, with a little slush possible St. Croix River Valley. It's too early for details. Right now I see nothing "plowable" for the expanded metro. I hope to retire that word until November.

Today's record MSP high is 83F in 1931. We may come very close.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Warm sun, record high? Winds: SW 10-20. High 83.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear and mild. Winds: SSW 10-15. Low: 52.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, still balmy. Winds: S 10-20. High 78.

FRIDAY: Fading sun, late showers, T-storm. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 58. High 76.

SATURDAY: Damp with a cold rain. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 39. High: 46.

SUNDAY: Chilly with sprinkles, few flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 36. High: 44.

MONDAY: Flurries, heavier snow over Wisconsin? Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 32. High: 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, springier. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 54.

This Day in Weather History

April 12th

1931: July-like temperatures are felt across the area with 90 degrees at Beardsley in west central Minnesota.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

April 12th

Average High: 55F (Record: 83F set in 1931)

Average Low: 36F (Record: 12F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 0.67" set in 1983

Record Snowfall: 6.6" set in 2020

Twin Cities Climate Data For April 12th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

April 12th

Sunrise: 6:33am

Sunset: 7:54pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 20 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 2 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 34 minutes

Moon Phase for April 12th at Midnight

0.1 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For April 13th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will be very warm across the the Midwest with temps running well above average. Some locations could even see record warmth across the Central US.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be quiet and very mild across much of the Central US. Areas of rain and snow will be found across the Intermountain-West. There will also be a few thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will be fairly quiet in the Central US through midweek. However, a storm system moving through the Northwest will move into the Central US with areas of t-showers and snow later in the week.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts of precipitation across the Southern US with several inches of rain possible. There will also be some heavier precipitation amounts across the Midwest and Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. There could also be heavier snow north of the Great Lakes Region.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Homeowners: Here's how to protect your investment from a tornado"

"In aftermath of the deadly tornadoes that ripped across parts of the Midwest and South this week, homeowners may rightfully be nervous about whether they are financially protected against potentially devastating storms. The last three years have had the highest insured losses on record from natural disasters, according to a recent report from Aon. Tornadoes are just one of the severe weather events that can destroy or damage property. Some 1,200 of them hit the U.S. yearly, and the phenomenon has been reported in all 50 states. A recent study suggests that these storms may be occurring more frequently because of global warming, as well as shifting eastward toward the densely populated Southern states of Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee."

"Extrapolations" is a climate change cautionary tale"

"Extrapolations," a new, star-studded Apple TV+ series, depicts humanity's future under ever-worsening — yet largely realistic — climate change scenarios in strikingly ambitious ways. Why it matters: The series is arguably the most far-reaching and experimental portrayal of climate change yet attempted. It sputters in some respects, with characters weaving in and out of episodes in sometimes confusing arcs. But it is startlingly well-grounded in climate science, and specifically references likely consequences of higher emissions scenarios from U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. Driving the news: Creator, producer and writer Scott Z. Burns told Axios in an interview that the show explores the "messy middle" of the climate story. Now available for streaming, "Extrapolations" is not an end-of-days, apocalyptic disaster series, where nothing can yet be done to rein in global warming. Rather, it examines timeframes in which humans still have some agency to shift course on greenhouse gas emissions."

"Lake Mead Water Levels Due to Hit Record Low Within Weeks"

"Despite recent water levels exceeding expectations, Lake Mead is forecast to drop back down to a record low level by the end of the month. As of Monday, Lake Mead's water level was at 1,045.91 feet above sea level, almost 3 feet above the level of 1,043.06 feet predicted in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's "Most Probable 24-Month Study," released at the start of March, However, based on the projections for April, the lake's water levels are forecast to fall to around 1,036 feet above sea level by the end of April. This would break the lake's previous record lowest water level of 1,040.71 feet above sea level, which occurred in late July 2022."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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