Amid health insurance hikes and recession concerns, Americans are about to feel the call of the mall. Whether their apprehensions about the economy will inhibit spending remains to be seen. But this much seems more certain than a Vikings win this weekend: Between 82% and 88% of consumers will shop from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, depending on which survey you believe. Overall, consumers are expected to spend $1,595 on average this holiday season, which is 10% less than last year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday survey. But Twin Citians are apparently feeling more optimistic than the national average — holiday spending in this market is expected to hold steady at closer to $1,700.
The National Retail Federation predicted people would shop early, and that appears to be holding true: Mall of America logged a couple of its top five Saturdays of the year earlier in November, reaching 2019-level numbers, said Jill Renslow, MOA’s chief business development and marketing officer. Then again, analysts say one of the reasons shoppers started early is to spread out purchases and lessen the budget impact.
Here are 10 retail trends to track this holiday season.
- AI shopping assistants. Is this the year gift finder bots move beyond gimmicks? From a quick consult with Target’s new AI gift recommendation tool and Walmart’s smiley face AI shopping assistant, Sparky, I’m not convinced. I asked both for a gift idea for Dad. Sparky suggested a coffee mug or baseball cap. Target asked for my price range, but then sent me to a generic gift list no more helpful than Googling the old fashioned way. But 33% of shoppers surveyed by Deloitte plan to use generative AI in their holiday shopping —double the 2024 figure.
- Southdale’s coming out party. It’s the first holiday season since the mall’s $400 million upgrade, including a new luxury wing. Will crowds return to the Edina shopping center? And will they pay full price? Don’t expect doorbusters at the new Gucci or Rolex shops, but that might not matter: J.P Morgan reports that affluent households earning $200,000 and above will dominate Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. And Deloitte says 44% of consumers will consider purchasing luxury goods this holiday season—same as last year. The group most likely to invest in designer goods? Gen Z at 57%.
- Galleria fights back. Southdale’s shift up-market has come at the expense of the shopping center across 69th Street. Louis Vuitton, David Yurman, Tory Burch and Kate Spade are but a few of the high-end national brands that moved to Southdale this year. In their stead, Galleria is leaning into two things it has long done well: local boutiques and home furnishings. Arhaus just opened a new home store that is twice the size of its previous Galleria store. Mille, Michelle LeBlanc’s Minneapolis-based women’s brand, opened at Galleria this month. And Galleria power duo, General Manager Wendy Eisenberg and leasing director Jennifer Smith, quickly invited some of their best tenants to temporarily fill vacant storefronts with holiday pop-ups, like vintage designer jewelry shop Pumpz Bijoux from longtime local retailer Marlys Badzin.
- Best Buy’s optimism. On Tuesday, the electronics retailer gleefully hiked its full-year forecast and reported a comparable year-over-year sales increase of 2.7%. CEO Corie Barry pointed to customers replacing their tech gear and seeking the latest innovations (on sale) as drivers both in store and online. “Customers remain resilient but deal-focused and attracted to more predictable sales moments,” Barry said on a call with analysts.
- The thrill of adversity. Half of shoppers surveyed by Deloitte plan to visit stores in person this weekend, and that number jumps to 72% among Gen Z shoppers who are too young to remember the days when camping out overnight in a Best Buy parking lot was a Thanksgiving tradition. Lining up is still a sport at Mall of America, which opens at 7 a.m. Friday with thousands of dollars in prizes for early birds. Renslow anticipates more than 10,000 visitors in the first hour. Throughout Black Friday last year, 250,000 people visited MOA. Pro tip: try to park in the surface lots to avoid ramp congestion, and follow MOA social media for real-time parking and traffic updates.
- Longer checkout lines. Retailers are scaling back on seasonal help this year. Executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicted seasonal hiring would fall to its lowest level since 2009.
- Holiday cheer as a downtown driver. The inaugural Winterapolis tree lighting happens from 5 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Friday in the Crystal Court at IDS Center. Once there, check out the Holidays on Nicollet pop-up market and the Dayton’s Holiday Market across the street. Friday is also the debut of the Little Door Store, an IDS Center pop-up aimed at kids with volunteers to help them pick out “pay-what-you-can” gifts for the grownups in their lives.
- Smarter wayfinding. Mall of America studies every query typed into its electronic mall directories to track interests, anticipate demand and add keywords that are associated with certain brands. For example, pointing “Labubu” seekers to the new Pop Mart store and those who type in “Tom Brady” are probably looking for CardVault, a sports card shop the former NFL All-Star quarterback co-owns. Subtext: collectibles of all kinds are going to be huge this season.
- White elephant gifts no longer just a gag. Seven in 10 holiday shoppers are leaning into what Deloitte describes as “value-seeking behaviors” like reusing gift wrap, regifting items and making handmade presents.
- Fewer frills. Entertaining remains key to holiday plans, but consumers are likely to spend 22% less than they did last year on hosting and decor. They’re also reducing self-gifting, which only adds to the stress 58% of consumers say they feel about holiday shopping. That brings us back to AI assistants and digital wish lists designed to make shopping easier. Savvy retailers will lean in to better service and pampering experiences to hook in-person shoppers.
Enjoy the feast!
