How to reconcile holiday’s ‘K-shaped’ shopping trends

In today’s newsletter: Dana Swindler, Beth Perro-Jarvis, Mary Van Note, Dave Higgins, Heather Kliebenstein, Kyle Potter and Kelly McQueen on the price of a partridge in a pear tree.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
December 15, 2025 at 12:15PM
A selection of wristwatches in a display case at the MartinPatrick 3 store in Minneapolis. (Anthony Soufflé/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Evidence of the much-discussed, much-feared “K-shaped economy” is popping up in the North Loop this holiday season where top tier designer goods are selling well at boutique department store MartinPatrick 3, co-owner Dana Swindler reports. That mirrors the national trend: Luxury clothing and accessories sales were up 21% on Black Friday, according to Salesforce data, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, holiday spending is expected to be down overall with 70% of consumers looking for deals to stretch their dollars, according to Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Survey.

In a “K” economy, the rich get richer while lower income households struggle. (Here’s a good explainer from the Asociated Press.)

But even at an upscale shop, this is not entirely cause for cheer. “We try to have something for everyone,” Swindler said. “Good, better, best, luxury.”

As we look ahead to 2026, how do businesses and brands reconcile the strength of luxury spending with a simultaneous swing toward deals and discounts — even among those who could afford more?

“Brands should be focusing on building emotional connections, not promotions,” said Beth Perro-Jarvis, one half of the duo behind Minneapolis-based brand strategy firm Ginger. Even Walmart is going beyond its traditional low price message to focus on merchandising, added her business partner Mary Van Note.

A few trends the two are tracking:

  • Migration toward “dupes.” These are not the knock-offs you might buy on the street in New York, rather, lower-priced versions of luxury goods. Strong examples of the moment include the suddenly ubiquitous lifestyle brand Quince (if you’re not familiar, queue this podcast for your commute) and Costco’s Kirkland. Choosing these lower-priced options is becoming a point of pride, even among shoppers who can afford better, Perro-Jarvis said. “It makes you feel smart.” Same goes for thrifting designer goods, another growing trend.
    • Tiered luxury. There’s a reason why stores in Southdale’s new luxury wing lean heavy on accessories. More people can afford Burberry sunglasses than a Burberry coat. “You’ve got to balance the super luxury tier with entry-level luxury,” Van Note said.
      • More luxurious luxuries. But when consumers do splurge on designer items, “it needs to be so special,” Perro-Jarvis said. “No knock-off is as good as real Gucci.” Increasingly, high-end consumers are choosing certain items to really splurge on while going economy on everything else (high-low chic).
        • Experiences over objects. Deloitte’s holiday survey found that higher income consumers value experiences over retail goods. “An incredibly special hotel stay, or a trip to a Michelin star restaurant,” Perro-Jarvis suggests. “Plus, it gets you out of worrying about being too showy in Minnesota.”  

          Survey says

          Nearly four in 10 professionals plan to look for a new job in the first half of 2026, according to a new survey from talent search firm Robert Half. That’s up from 29% a year ago. Top motivators driving job-search plans include a desire for better benefits (36%), limited career advancement opportunities (34%), more competitive pay (33%) and burnout (24%). The survey, conducted in November, contains responses from more than 2,000 employed workers and 450 unemployed job seekers across the U.S.

          The findings are a bit at odds with the delayed September jobs report, which reflected a cooling market with unemployment up to 4.4%, a nearly four year high. And my colleague Emmy Martin recently wrote about the difficulties of finding a job without a college degree. But job seekers surveyed by Robert Half seem to be bracing for the challenge: 68% said they expect their job search to take longer than previous searches.

          The November jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is due out Tuesday, Dec. 16.

          Economic indicator

          PNC

          That Partridge in a Pear Tree we sing about every December would cost you 13.5% more this year, were you to actually purchase one. The Five Gold Rings? Up 32.5%, according to PNC’s Christmas Price Index. The banker’s idea of holiday amusement, every year for 42 years running, PNC has calculated the prices of the gifts from “The 12 Days of Christmas.” Yep, even the 11 Pipers Piping (up 2.2% — entertainment inflation).

          “Economic environments may fluctuate,” said Kelly McQueen, PNC regional president for Minnesota, “but one constant for more than four decades is the light-hearted take of the PNC Christmas Price Index that calculates the cost of true love’s gifts each holiday season.”

          This year’s overall tab: $51,476, up 4.5% from last year.

          In the news

          Any ideas for St. Paul?: The nonprofit St. Paul Downtown Development Corporation just picked up the Endicott Building — the third vacant downtown building it has purchased with the goal of redevelopment. Everything from conversion to tear down is on the table, but SPDDC needs investors who are committed to revitalizing St. Paul’s city core, even if it isn’t profitable at the moment. “We’re trying to be a force of momentum in the right direction,” the group’s president, Dave Higgins told Strib reporter Katie Galioto.

          Know your rights: Merchant & Gould managing director Heather Kliebenstein talked to Strib reporter Patrick Kennedy about how AI is shaping intellectual property law today. “My prediction is that things that are built by humans are going to become very valuable.”

          Sticker shock: Thrifty Traveler tracked the price of a one-way ticket from Minneapolis to Atlanta last week at a whopping $699. Twin Cities-based travel expert Kyle Potter pointed to Delta’s near-monopoly on that route. “Welcome to the infuriating world of hub penalties, where airlines charge their most loyal flyers at major hubs higher fares,” he wrote. The work around? Atlanta via Fargo, for $181. Delta wins again.

          about the writer

          about the writer

          Allison Kaplan

          Allison Kaplan is Director of Innovation and Engagement for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

          See Moreicon

          More from North Star Insider

          See More
          card image
          Anthony Soufflé/The Minnesota Star Tribune

          In today’s newsletter: Dana Swindler, Beth Perro-Jarvis, Mary Van Note, Dave Higgins, Heather Kliebenstein, Kyle Potter and Kelly McQueen on the price of a partridge in a pear tree.

          card image
          card image