NFL divisional playoffs: Mark Craig predicts the final four teams
The No. 1 seeds — the Ravens in the AFC and the 49ers in the NFC — enter the fray after some wild-card weekend surprises.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
January 19, 2024 at 5:55PM
AFC: Texans (11-7) at Ravens (13-4)
Time (TV): 3:30 p.m. (ABC, ESPN)
Line: Ravens by 9½
The matchup: Baltimore showcased its No. 1 scoring defense (16.5) in a Week 1 meeting. The host Ravens won 25-9, holding Houston to 268 yards on a day when likely MVP Lamar Jackson had two turnovers and 169 yards passing. C.J. Stroud’s 78.0 passer rating in his NFL debut for Houston was his second lowest of the season. Pressure is on Jackson, who is 1-3 in playoff games, 0-2 at home.
Did you know? Top-seeded Baltimore has a league-high 31 takeaways. Houston, the No. 4 seed, has a league-low 14 giveaways.
Prediction: The Ravens are rested and will be adding former Viking Dalvin Cook to the league’s top rushing attack (156.5). They also have a defense that’s held its last four opponents to an average of 15.5 points. Ravens 26, Texans 19
NFC: Packers (10-8) at 49ers (12-5)
Time (TV): 7:15 p.m. (Fox 9)
Line: 49ers by 9½
The matchup: Green Bay, the first seventh seed to win in the expanded playoff format, is 7-2 with an NFL-high 113.2 passer rating since Week 11. The top-seeded 49ers have the league’s No. 2 offense and No. 3 scoring defense. They’ve also won five straight divisional games and are trying to reach the NFC title game for a third straight season.
Did you know? Green Bay QB Jordan Love and Stroud each posted a 157.2 passer rating last week — the highest ever in an NFL playoff debut (minimum 20 attempts).
Prediction: As Jerry Jones discovered last week, anything’s possible with these pesky Packers. But, as the Vikings found out four years ago, it’s tough to follow an emotional upset with a trip to San Francisco to play one of the league’s most physical teams after it’s had a week off. 49ers 31, Packers 20
SUNDAY’S GAMES
NFC: Buccaneers (10-8) at Lions (13-5)
Time (TV): 2 p.m. Sunday (NBC, Peacock)
Line: Lions by 6½
The matchup: Detroit, the No. 3 seed, is hosting a second playoff game in a single season for the first time. The fourth-seeded Bucs have won six of their last seven, including two straight road games. The Lions won at Tampa 20-6 in Week 6 as Baker Mayfield posted his worst passer rating (56.8) of the season.
Did you know? At least one road team has won a divisional playoff game in six of the last seven years, including two of the last three Super Bowl champions (2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams).
Prediction: Ford Field will be a huge advantage for Aidan Hutchinson and Detroit’s pass rush. And Jared Goff lit up the Bucs for 353 yards and a 107.5 rating in Week 6. But … Baker and the Bucs find a way to out-gritty Detroit. Buccaneers 23, Lions 21
AFC: Chiefs (12-6) at Bills (12-6)
Time (TV): 5:30 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
Line: Bills by 2½
The matchup: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are 3-3 vs. each other, but Mahomes is 2-0 in playoff games, including the 2021 divisional game in which Buffalo blew a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left. Buffalo’s current six-game win streak started with a 20-17 win at Kansas City and propelled the Bills to home-field advantage here as the No. 2 seed. This is Mahomes’ first road playoff game other than three neutral Super Bowl venues.
Did you know? The Chiefs, the No. 3 seed this season, have won 45 straight when allowing 17 or fewer points.
Prediction: Bills Mafia will be thirsting for the most vulnerable Chiefs offense of the Mahomes era. Buffalo has turned around a shaky season by firing an offensive coordinator and getting some healthy defenders back. There are, of course, no handcuffs from which Mahomes can’t escape, but look for Buffalo to finally put him away. Bills 30, Chiefs 27
Mike Conley was in Minneapolis, where he sounded the Gjallarhorn at the Vikings game, on Sunday during the robbery.
