Souhan: Vikings pessimism is a good break and a wrong take

The Vegas consensus is that the Vikings will win 8.5 games in 2025. I think they’ll get the .5 for beating 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers in a large pub in Dublin, but that’s just a guess.

Many Vegas sites that set the Vikings’ win total at 8.5 also predict they will fail to reach it.

The consensus of well-known NFL analysts seems to be that the Vikings are in some sort of rebuild mode because they will start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback after allowing Sam Darnold to leave.

All of which leaves the 2025 Vikings in an ideal position, emotionally.

They won 14 games last year with a refurbished quarterback. They’ve won 13 and 14 games in the two seasons in which the starting quarterback has remained healthy under head coach Kevin O’Connell.

In 2023, when everything went wrong, including quarterback Kirk Cousins and star receiver Justin Jefferson getting hurt, they still won seven games.

I believe the 2025 Vikings are better than the 2024 Vikings, that the division is weaker than it was a year ago because of the Lions’ personnel and coaching losses and that the lack of pressure being applied from outside the building puts this team in an ideal place:

Heightened expectations can thrill a fan base and unnerve a locker room. The Vikings won’t have to deal with the weight of outside expectations, yet I believe they should be a better, more reliable team this year than last, with a better chance to peak instead of collapse at the end of the season.

The offensive line is better, with Will Fries and Ryan Kelly providing bulk and experience and Donovan Jackson providing size and promise. This is a major and important upgrade that should allow the Vikings to run the ball more effectively, to be more difficult to stop in short-yardage and goal-line situations and to deal with less up-the-middle pass-rush pressure.

The defensive line should be better, with Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave adding size and experience to the end positions.

The pass rush should be better, with Dallas Turner’s expected second-year improvement giving the Vikings three outstanding edge rushers — Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Turner.

The linebackers and receivers should be about the same, although the addition of receiver/returner Rondale Moore could upgrade both positions if he’s healthy.

I would expect the Vikings to address their cornerback and tight end depth issues as the season opener approaches. They signed Stephon Gilmore in late August last year, and that, or something similar, could happen this season.

There are three reasons so many national line-setters and analysts are downgrading the Vikings’ chances this season:

Yes, the division is tough, but the Bears have much to prove before they can be taken seriously. The Packers are good, but Jordan Love appeared to regress at least slightly last year. The Lions lost three of their best brains — offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and center Frank Ragnow.

Yes, the schedule looks difficult, but playing two road games against beatable teams at neutral sites constitutes an advantage.

Yes, McCarthy is an unknown, but I believe he will be a better and more reliable quarterback at the end of this season than Darnold was last year.

Here are the facts underlying the speculation: The Vikings never brought Rodgers in for an interview or made him an offer. The Steelers, who did both, were always going to sign him.