Weather Outlook AM Sunday to AM Tuesday

Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to AM Tuesday. While there doesn't appear to be any major snow chances close to home, we do have a chance isolated snow showers and flurries across parts of the region over the next couple/few days.

Sunday Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows quiet weather in place throughout much of the day. Mostly cloudy skies will continue with perhaps a few flurries here or there.

Sunday Meteograms for Minneapolis

Here's a look at the Meteograms for Sunday, which shows temps warming into the mid 20s by the afternoon. Skies will also remain mostly cloudy much of the day with northwesterly winds gusting close to 15mph at times.

Sunday Weather Outlook

High temps on Sunday will warm into the 20s across much of Minnesota, which will be +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. There may also be a few light snow showers or flurries across parts of the region.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for the Twin Cities, which shows above average temps on Sunday and Monday with temps warming into the mid 20s. Tuesday will be a little cooler with a high that could be below average for a change. The extended outlook suggests even cooler temps by Friday and Saturday with temps only warming into the low/mid teens and overnight lows dipping into the single digits.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook through the end of January shows cooler temps as we head into the 2nd half of the month. The ECMWF doesn't show anything too significant, but according to the GFS, highs may only warm into the single digits during the last few days of the month. Stay tuned.

Minneapolis January Summary So Far

Here's a look at the January numbers so far and it certainly has been a mild start to the month. We're nearly +10.0F above average, which is the 6th warmest start to any January on record. Also note that MSP is currently sitting at its 11th warmest Meteorological Winter on record (December 1st - January 16th). We've also only had 2.9" of snow, which is nearly -3" below average for the month.

Snow Depth As of January 16th

As of January 16th, there was still 7" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities with 9" in Duluth, 10" in International Falls and 13" in Marquette, MI.

National Snow Depth

As of January 16th, 29.1% of the nation was covered by snow. At this time last year, nearly 35.6% of the nation was covered,

Snowfall So Far This January

Through the first half of January, there hasn't been much snowfall across the region. The heaviest has fallen in far southeastern MN and into southern Wisconsin. Through January 16th, the Twin Cities had only seen 2.9" of snow, which was nearly -3.5" below average for the month.

Snowfall So Far This Season

Here's a look at the snowfall so far this season, which shows some of the heaviest tallies from the Twin Cities to Duluth and toward the U.P. of Michigan. With that being said, the Twin Cities is the only spot around the region carrying the greatest seasonal surplus, which is nearly +5 above average. Meanwhile, Marquette, MI is carrying the greatest seasonal deficit of nearly 3ft.

Drought Update

According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions have continued over the last few months with nearly 98% of the state considered to be in abnormally dry, while almost 23% is considered to be in a moderate drought. Through January 16th, the Twin Cities is running pretty close to average precipitation for the year 2021 so far.

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there maybe an increase in precipitation chances across much of the nation from January 24th-30th.

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, cooler than average will return to much of the nation.

Avoid Ice-Related Slip and Fall Injuries
By Paul Douglas

My two biggest discoveries of the winter: air fryers and Yaktrax. After falling on the ice a few times I had a painful epiphany: boot treads don't work on ice. So I strapped spiky coils over my treads, and it's similar to chains you strap over winter tires. Not perfect, but traction is MUCH better.

Many of the snow birds I know aren't intimidated by the cold. But they live in fear of falling; breaking a hip or cracking their skulls. CDC estimated 800,000slip and fall injuries every year in the US -most of those in winter.

In spite of a brief midweek thaw, temperatures will trend colder this week - a few subzero nights are possible by week's end. As we discovered Thursday, it's really hard to get significant snow with temperatures in the 30s. A dome of arctic air overhead may increase the odds of significant snow accumulations late Saturday into Monday of next week.

Colder air is coming, but not as|PART6:Nanook as models hinted at days ago. Now I focus on getting the ice off my driveway. An air fryer?

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Clouds and a few flurries. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 26.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries early. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 14.

MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun Winds: NW 8-13. High: 20.

TUESDAY: Chilly with another round of flurries. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 4. High: 15.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and milder. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 6. High: 34.

THURSDAY: Some sun. Late flurries. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 26 High: 32.

FRIDAY: Sunny and cold, feels like January. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 3 High: 10.

SATURDAY: Sunny start. Snow may arrive late. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: -6. High: 18.

This Day in Weather History

January 17th

1996: A severe ice storm hits the western and northern Twin Cities with accumulations between a half an inch and an inch. A foot of snow fell over central Minnesota.

1982: The citizens of Tower wake up to a frigid low of -52 degrees F.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

January 17th

Average High: 23F (Record: 44F set in 1894)

Average Low: 7F (Record: -26F set in 1967)

Record Rainfall: 0.90" set in 1996

Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1932

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

January 17th

Sunrise: 7:46am

Sunset: 5:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 15 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 55 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 29 minutes

Moon Phase for January 17th at Midnight

2.6 Days Before First Moon

See more from HERE:

What's in the Night Sky?

"Tonight, look for the northern sky's two most prominent sky patterns – the constellation Cassiopeia the Queen and the Big Dipper. Both circle around Polaris, the North Star, once a day. They are opposite each other, one on either side of the North Star. At nightfall, the constellation Cassiopeia the Queen is easy to recognize in the northern sky, either in the evening or before dawn. This constellation is shaped like a W or M and contains five moderately bright stars. The distinctive shape of Cassiopeia makes her very noticeable among the stars of the northern sky. And, of course, Ursa Major the Greater Bear – which contains the Big Dipper asterism – is one of the most famous of all star patterns. At nightfall this month, Cassiopeia shines high in the north while the Dipper lurks low. They are always on opposite sides of the North Star. From the southern half of the U.S., the Big Dipper is actually partially or totally beneath the horizon this month in the evening hours. North of about 40 degrees north latitude (the latitude of Denver, Colorado), the Big Dipper always stays above the horizon (if your horizon is level)."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

National High Temps Sunday

Here's a look at weather conditions across the nation on Sunday. Note that temps across much of the nation will be running above average and especially across California. Meanwhile, folks in the Southeast will be running a little below average for this time of the year.

National Forecast Map For Sunday

The weather map on Sunday shows unsettled weather continuing across the northern tier of the nation with pockets of heavier snow in the Rockies and across parts of the Northeast.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather map through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, which shows lingering show showers across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop in the Southwest with areas of rain and snow possible in the Four Corners Region.

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

The precipitation potential over the next 7 days shows heavier precipitation across the Southern US, including the parts of the Desert Southwest.

7 Day Snowfall Potential

The extended snowfall forecast through the week ahead shows areas of heavy snow in the Northern New England States and even across parts of the Southwest.

Climate Stories

"Earth's oceans are storing record-breaking amounts of heat"

"Seas may have absorbed enough heat last year to boil 1.3 billion kettles of water. Pandemic-related shutdowns may have spared Earth's atmosphere some greenhouse gas emissions last year, but the world continued to warm. Water temperature measurements from around the globe indicate that the total amount of heat stored in the upper oceans in 2020 was higher than any other year on record dating back to 1955, researchers report online January 13 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. Tracking ocean temperature is important because warmer water melts more ice off the edges of Greenland and Antarctica, which raises sea levels (SN: 4/30/20) and supercharges tropical storms (SN: 11/11/20). Researchers estimated the total heat energy stored in the upper 2,000 meters of Earth's oceans using temperature data from moored sensors, drifting probes called Argo floats, underwater robots and other instruments (SN: 5/19/10). The team found that upper ocean waters contained 234 sextillion, or 1021, joules more heat energy in 2020 than the annual average from 1981 to 2010. Heat energy storage was up about 20 sextillion joules from 2019 — suggesting that in 2020, Earth's oceans absorbed about enough heat to boil 1.3 billion kettles of water."

See more from Science News HERE:

"Don't Despair: Research Shows Small Changes Really Can Lead to Big Climate Shifts"

"If there's one thing the climate crisis has taught us, it's that small things can accumulate and lead to big changes. Like the mouse that sank the boat, just one seemingly insignificant shift at the right time can finally push a system beyond the parameters that maintain it. We've heard a lot of such tipping points in the context of irreversibly pushing our tottering climate systems in a frightening direction. But to combat this crisis, we do have to trigger massive changes within other complex and interlinked systems: industrial, social, and economic. So researchers have investigated potential triggers that could create a cascade of beneficial changes to help rapidly curb our emissions. "We have left it too late to tackle climate change incrementally," said Earth systems scientist Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter in the UK. "Limiting global warming to well below 2°C now requires transformational change, and a dramatic acceleration of progress." By focusing on two sectors – light road transport and power – Lenton and colleague Simon Sharpe, Deputy Director of the UK COP 26 unit, identified actions that could help reach tipping points of change within them. "The power sector needs to decarbonise four times faster than its current rate, and the pace of the transition to zero-emission vehicles needs to double," explained Lenton."

See more from Science Alert HERE:

"Podcast goes behind the scenes in the battle to mitigate wildfires"

"The podcast Life with Fire explores the wildfires a warming world will create – and why we need to involve everyone if we are going to learn how best to live with them. Read more: IT ISN'T surprising that most people associate fires with death and destruction. Wildfires are getting worse every year around the world, destroying property, killing people and wiping out wildlife and habitats. But for Jeremy Bailey, a fire manager at the Nature Conservancy in Utah, fire is a natural process that revitalises the landscape, much like rain. "When I think about fire, it always brings me a pleasant feeling," he says. He is the first guest on Life with Fire …"

See more from News Scientist HERE:

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