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Vikings mailbag: Place in the NFC North? Trading Justin Jefferson? Keep Kirk Cousins and draft a QB?
You had questions and we have answers about the Vikings’ standing in the division, trading Jefferson, re-signing Cousins, drafting a quarterback, free-agent running backs and more.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
January 25, 2024 at 4:22PM
Q: The Lions are playing in the NFC Championship Game, the Packers have another quarterback for forever and the Bears have the No. 1 pick again. Why can’t we have nice things? -- Eddie
AK: Maybe a small fraction of Vikings fans can feel an ounce of happiness for Detroit, which has one of the only better claims to being cursed by the NFL gods than the Vikings. As reigning NFC North champions and possible Super Bowl participants, the Lions are going to be here for a while when you look at the roster. Even if they lose play-calling wunderkind Ben Johnson, Detroit is set up for success because of the work general manager Brad Holmes has done since 2021.
The cruel twist for Minnesota this season was obviously the late-season development of Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who looked lost on Oct. 29 when the Vikings crushed the Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 8 of the next 12 games, including the wild-card playoff win in Dallas. Love doesn’t have to be anything more than the Packers’ version of Brock Purdy in head coach Matt LaFleur’s system that is predicated on running the ball. They’re also going to get a new defensive coordinator.
The Bears have the No. 1 overall catbird seat in an allegedly loaded QB draft class. They don’t even have to bank on Justin Fields turning a corner. But if they move on from Fields, Chicago desperately needs presumed No. 1 pick Caleb Williams to be the rare QB worthy of that draft slot. Seven quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 overall in the last nine years, and only the Bengals’ Joe Burrow has been an immediate star. Chicago also has the ninth-most effective cap space, per OverTheCap.com.
The Vikings aren’t in the most enviable position for restoring the roster, which leads to the next question.
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Q: While I do not advocate this, I do feel the Vikings should explore all options. Would trading Justin Jefferson be enough to secure the No. 4 or 5 overall draft pick? In line with that thought, what would Jefferson’s value be in a trade for draft picks? -- Tom
AK: Trading Jefferson may be a quick way to rebuild draft capital for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, but it would be an incredibly head-scratching, franchise-altering move for a roster devoid of top talent.
To entertain the idea: A couple years ago, the Chiefs traded receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami for five draft picks: a 2022 first (29th overall), a second (50th), and a fourth-round pick (121st), as well as 2023 selections in the fourth and sixth rounds. The Dolphins then paid Hill a top-of-market contract extension worth $30 million annually. That’s the bar Jefferson is expected to clear whenever he signs a new deal.
Another relevant and recent trade: the Panthers moved their top target, receiver D.J. Moore, last year to Chicago. The Panthers acquired the Bears’ No. 1 overall pick in exchange for Moore, the No. 9 pick, a second-round pick (61st overall), another first-round pick in 2024, and another second-round pick in 2025.
At this point, there has been no indication the Vikings are considering trading their best player.
But those two trades offer a framework for this hypothetical, whether the Vikings were to trade Jefferson for draft picks (and keep the No. 11 overall pick this spring) a la the Chiefs, or whether they package him with the No. 11 pick to jump up in this year’s draft a la the Panthers.
Obviously, Jefferson is better than Moore and younger than Hill. But they’re not getting the No. 1 pick for him. The Vikings wouldn’t want him in Chicago, which again holds the top pick thanks to the Panthers. So, the next options would be Washington (No. 2 pick), New England (No. 3 pick) or Arizona (No. 4 pick). Last time I checked, the Commanders and Patriots need a franchise quarterback, just like the Vikings.
What’s Jefferson’s value in just draft picks? A haul. Likely more than Hill’s value (a late first, a second, two fourths and a sixth), because Jefferson turns 25 years old in June and has no known off-field concerns.
It’s a quarterback league, and the Vikings’ need is really the only reason to be having this discussion. Even if the Vikings re-signed Kirk Cousins before the draft, they need a long-term solution. And they like this QB class.
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Q: No NFL franchise has been more successful with its QBs in recent years than Green Bay. Jordan Love credits where he now is to the tutoring he got from Aaron Rodgers. Prior to Aaron was Brett Favre. The Vikings are in an excellent position to do the same. They should sign Kirk Cousins, draft a QB with their first pick in the upcoming draft and let Kirk tutor him for a couple years. -- Dick
AK: Adofo-Mensah has said publicly they want to re-sign Cousins if they can make the money work, and again we’ve privately heard that they like this QB draft class. So, you’re onto something. Reloading the roster becomes even more difficult if the Vikings allocate both more money to Cousins and the top draft pick at quarterback. But it’s the most important position in sports. And head coach Kevin O’Connell just saw how difficult it can be for new quarterbacks to run his system. The Vikings playbook puts a lot of mental load on the quarterback to remember wordy play calls, decipher pre-snap defensive looks and choose from a short menu of plays at the line of scrimmage -- all while the play clock ticks. It’s partly why the Vikings led the league in delay of game penalties (six with Cousins, five with the other cast of QBs). Coaches argue that flexibility at the line gives them the best chance to get into the ideal call.
That means it’s also not the easiest transition for quarterbacks from college. Most passers obviously benefit from time to develop, which the NFL rarely offers, and the Vikings could be in that kind of situation by this summer.
Q: Can you list the Vikings’ draft picks for this spring? -- Shawn
AK: Minnesota holds nine draft picks. In addition to picking No. 11 overall, the Vikings also hold their own second-round pick (No. 42) and fourth-round pick (TBD). They have additional picks in the fourth (via Detroit), fifth (via Kansas City), fifth (via Cleveland), sixth (via Jacksonville), sixth (via New England) and seventh rounds (via Arizona).
The Vikings don’t have a third-round pick; the Lions and Vikings swapped third and fourth rounders in the T.J. Hockenson trade. The Vikings’ original fifth-round selection was sent to Philadelphia for receiver Jalen Reagor. Their sixth is in Arizona for Joshua Dobbs, while the seventh is in Las Vegas for Nick Mullens.
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Q: Any chance Saquon Barkley comes to Minnesota? -- Tony
AK: The Vikings will be in the market for a running back (or two) this offseason after their backfield combined for four rushing touchdowns last season. Dobbs added three rushing scores just to get to seven -- a franchise-low in a non-strike season. Alexander Mattison lost the job to Ty Chandler, and neither were consistent. But I would not expect this front office to spend big at the position. O’Connell wants a better run game, and has said he values the counterpunch it can offer to a prolific passing attack. Some of that falls on his shoulders in the game planning process.
But the Vikings are likely never going to be a run-focused team under O’Connell, so why would they use limited salary cap resources on the position? Instead, look for the Vikings to try to strike for value in what is currently a name-heavy RB free-agent class. It’s led by Derrick Henry, Barkley, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler. I wouldn’t expect a workhorse RB (like Henry, Jacobs, Barkley) to even want to come to Minnesota. But how about Texans’ free-agent Devin Singletary? An underrated back with efficient feet who took the starting job in Houston last year behind questionable blocking. He signed for $2.5 million guaranteed last year and since earned a pay raise that could still be affordable.
Mike Conley was in Minneapolis, where he sounded the Gjallarhorn at the Vikings game, on Sunday during the robbery.
