Analysis: This stat has defined Kevin O’Connell’s tenure as Vikings head coach

Kevin O’Connell is 32-4 when his Vikings don’t lose the turnover battle.

Hooray!

Wait.

Why?

Because he’s 4-17 when they do.

And …

They’ve already done it twice this year (going 0-2) after doing so only twice all last season (going 1-1), when they won 14 games with Sam Darnold, a feat incredible enough to garner K.O. NFL Coach of the Year.

The year before that, O’Connell went 1-10 when losing the turnover battle. No accolades were showered upon him. Some were leaning his way when he turned a 1-4 start into a 6-4 celebration of his QB guru-ness with Josh Dobbs. Then the Vikings finished 1-6 as they – yep, you guessed it – lost six of seven turnover battles down the stretch.

Years ago, one of my then-grade-school daughters looked at the Vikings’ schedule, saw 16 games and asked, “Dad, if the Vikings only play 16 games, what do you do the rest of the year?”

Um, ah … good question.

We media folks tell stories, hopefully interesting ones. We also spend an awful lot of time analyzing, discussing, over-analyzing and blathering on about what we think could, should and will happen in the upcoming game.

Then the opening kickoff comes …

We watch as the bouncing ball oftentimes literally determines the outcome of the game — not all the things we discussed, analyzed, over-analyzed and blathered on about for six days prior.

Take the Jacksonville Jaguars as a great current example.

They lead the league in penalties (50). They lead the league in penalty yardage (308).

Their offense is sloppy, leading the NFL in penalties called (30) and accepted (23).

Yet …

Why?

Because the Jaguars are 3-1 a year after they went 4-13. If they beat the Chiefs at home on Monday night, the Jags will be 4-1 for the first time since 2007.

Why?

Because they have a league-high 13 takeaways in four games. Last year, they had a league-low nine in 17 games.

Takeaways trump sloppiness. Takeaways trump injuries. Takeaways are the perfect elixir in a highly imperfect game of attrition. As Vikings fans can attest, takeaways can turn a smile (five against Cincinnati) upside down (zero against Pittsburgh) in a week’s time.

Linebacker Devin Lloyd used to be just a guy who couldn’t tackle very well. Today, he’s an NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate with a league-high three straight games with a takeaway, including two interceptions in Sunday’s 26-21 four-takeaway upset at San Francisco.

Pittsburgh isn’t all that good. Baltimore might be the most talented team in the league. The Steelers have 10 takeaways, are 3-1 and lead the AFC North. The Ravens have two takeaways, are 1-3 and sit last in the AFC North.

The Vikings and Steelers tied for the league lead in takeaways a year ago. The Vikings have seven this year, tied for fourth.

Seven isn’t bad but needs to be better.

Why?

In other words, if O’Connell is going to improve upon his 32-4 record when winning the turnover battle, the bulk of the pressure is on the defense to create the takeaways that would make all of us overlook the injuries, the quarterback and the overall sloppiness that’s on the other side of the ball.