What’s at stake in the Tuesday city election: How far left does Minneapolis want to be?

Tuesday’s Minneapolis election will be a battle among competing factions of Democrats.

Yes, the city is ruled by Democrats, but the politics are largely split between moderates and a more progressive wing, anchored by a growing faction of democratic socialists like Sen. Omar Fateh, a candidate for mayor.

Two years ago, a progressive bloc took control of the 13-member City Council from moderate members aligned with Mayor Jacob Frey.

The seven members of the progressive faction are often able to round up two more votes needed to override Frey’s vetoes. That led to a tumultuous 2024, with Frey vetoing eight measures, including a minimum pay rate for rideshare drivers; an Israel-Hamas ceasefire resolution; a carbon emissions fee; an ordinance creating a new labor standards board; and a denial of raises for about 160 high-paid city employees. The council overrode half of those vetoes.

With Tuesday’s ballot featuring the mayor and all 13 council seats up for grabs, the election will determine not only whether Frey stays in office but also whether the progressive bloc continues to control the council. Losing just one seat would end its veto-proof coalition. There are three open council seats and three incumbents in tough races.

Adding spice to the stew: The factions don’t get along well. Decorum has deteriorated to the point where council members openly attack each other and the mayor from the dais, on social media and at public events, such as when Council Member Aisha Chughtai lobbed expletives at Frey from a concert stage in August.

Minneapolis for the Many Chair Chelsea McFarren, whose political action committee supports more progressive candidates, including Fateh, said her PAC has done polling on some of the council races. “We’re not worried about losing the progressive majority on council,” she said.

Incumbents Chughtai, Robin Wonsley and Katie Cashman are in the toughest re-election races.

Ward 7’s Cashman is at risk of losing her seat to Park Commissioner Elizabeth Shaffer. Shaffer won the Minneapolis DFL endorsement and has raised more than $248,000, more than double Cashman’s $119,000, according to the most recent campaign finance reports.

Cashman is more progressive than her predecessor, Lisa Goodman, and often votes with the progressive bloc.

“Katie is in a tough spot,” said All of Mpls Executive Director Jacob Hill. “The seventh ward is fed up with how Katie Cashman governs very differently than how she campaigns.”

McFarren acknowledged the race is tight, but said, “I think renters and residents are seeing somebody who stands up for their rights in Cashman.”

Only $3 separated their fundraising totals in August, but since then, Madore’s fundraising has outpaced Wonsley, and she now has nearly $129,000, almost twice Wonsley’s $72,000 haul. The ward includes eastern Minneapolis, including the University of Minnesota, where Wonsley puts a lot of her focus.

McFarren is confident Wonsley’s work in the ward will pay off.

“We’re not worried about Robin at all,” she said. “We know that Robin will win.”

Hill said the race is too close to call and will depend on which candidate turns out voters. But he considers Wonsley vulnerable because she won her first election in 2021 by 13 votes, and only won 68% of votes in 2023 even though she ran unopposed (candidate Michael Baskins mounted a write-in campaign).

“She’s clearly polarizing,“ he said, adding she’s ”connected to the most extreme thread of politics in Minneapolis" while Madore was elected to represent a Dakota County swing district in the Legislature by building coalitions.

Both sides agree Chughtai is in a close race, too, in Ward 10, which is centered around Uptown. Challenger Lydia Millard has raised nearly $171,000, dwarfing Chughtai’s $62,000.

Chughtai won more votes than Millard at the Ward 10 DFL endorsing convention, but the convention ended with no endorsement. Millard is the executive director for the Stevens Square Community Organization.

McFarren said she’s confident Chughtai will retain her seat, but Hill said Millard has an “excellent chance” of beating Chughtai, who’s “very divisive.”

Three wards have open races because the incumbents — Andrea Jenkins, Jeremiah Ellison and Emily Koski — aren’t running for re-election.

In north Minneapolis’ Ward 5, Tinitha Pearll Warren has raised the most money, at nearly $89,000. That’s nearly five times as much as the more progressive candidate, Ethrophic Burnett, who has raised nearly $18,000.

Hill said Warren most closely aligns politically with the ward, where Ellison faced divided opposition in 2021. McFarren said Ward 5 will be a challenge and that, depending on the candidates’ ground game, “it’s really anyone’s race.”

In Ward 8, Soren Stevenson nearly beat Jenkins in 2023, and is considered the favorite by many. Stevenson, a democratic socialist, was endorsed by the Minneapolis DFL over Josh Bassais and raised nearly $79,000, while Bassais has raised nearly $67,000.

In Ward 11, Jamison Whiting, a police reform attorney for the city, is seen as a frontrunner. He’s raised about $55,000, while the other two candidates have raised about $13,000 combined.

Whiting was endorsed by the DFL to succeed Koski, and has been endorsed by All of Mpls. Minneapolis for the Many didn’t endorse anyone in that race.

A handful of incumbents on each side of the DFL spectrum are widely considered safe bets to win re-election, according to interviews with people in both camps.