Who has early momentum in the GOP race for Minnesota governor?

Minnesota Republicans are eagerly lining up for the opportunity to take on DFL Gov. Tim Walz next year, with about a dozen candidates now running and some clear top contenders starting to emerge.

The crowded field features established politicians and insurgent outsiders, including the speaker of the Minnesota House and the firebrand CEO of MyPillow. They’re jockeying for the opportunity to deny Walz a third consecutive term as he faces intense scrutiny over his handling of fraud in state programs.

In the first measure of early momentum, more than 300 of the Minnesota Republican Party’s most engaged activists signaled their preferences for governor in a Dec. 13 straw poll. Party activists will decide who wins the GOP endorsement, which could give one candidate extra resources and an edge in the August Republican primary.

The top four vote-getters in the poll: Businessman Kendall Qualls, House Speaker Lisa Demuth, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and Minneapolis attorney Chris Madel.

The winner of the Minnesota GOP’s winter straw poll hasn’t always won the party’s nomination; in late 2021, then-Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka won the straw poll for governor only to lose the endorsement to physician Scott Jensen in the spring. But the early results offer a view of who is and isn’t gaining traction at this point in the race.

“This preference poll provides a snapshot of where engaged party leaders stand today and reflects the growing energy around winning the Governor’s Office in 2026,” Minnesota GOP chair Alex Plechash said in a statement.

The next indicators will come early next year. Candidates will report their 2025 fundraising totals in late January, showing who has brought in and burned through the most cash. Another straw poll will be conducted during a gathering of activists in February, just a few months before the GOP’s spring state convention.

Qualls, an Army veteran who ran for governor in 2022, narrowly won the GOP’s gubernatorial straw poll with 93 votes. He’s been in the race since May and has been involved in state Republican politics for many years.

His straw-poll victory served as a reminder of the years he’s spent building relationships with delegates as a perennial candidate.

“Our campaign solidified its place as the frontrunner, WINNING a straw poll of delegates,” Qualls wrote in a social media post this past weekend. “To fix what’s happening at the Capitol, we need someone who isn’t from the Capitol.”

Qualls, who narrowly lost the GOP endorsement to Jensen three years ago, is among only a few candidates this cycle who are pledging to abide by the endorsement. That means he won’t run in the August primary election if he fails to win the party’s backing. State GOP delegates have typically favored candidates who make that pledge.

Demuth, the highest-ranking Republican in state government, came in second with 90 votes after entering the race in November. She’s well-known in Minnesota Republican politics, has already named a running mate and is also pledging to abide by the GOP endorsement even if she doesn’t get it.

“In just six short weeks since I’ve launched my campaign for governor, my running mate Ryan Wilson and I have criss-crossed the state to share our vision for a stronger, better Minnesota. Our message is intended for every Minnesotan,” Demuth said in a statement Saturday.

But as one of two sitting politicians in the race, Demuth has faced criticism from outsider candidates who say she should have fought for bigger cuts to the state’s budget, among other things.

Lindell and Madel, who finished third and fourth in the straw poll, respectively, have emphasized their outsider status as they seek to create their own lane in the race.

“I don’t want to be like a politician,” Lindell said last week. “It’s professional politicians that have gotten us into all of this trouble.”

Lindell launched his campaign two days before the straw poll but still drew 49 votes. He’s already gained support from Minnesota right-wing groups such as Action 4 Liberty and figures such as GOP U.S. Senate candidate Royce White.

Madel, a hard-charging Minneapolis attorney, has touted his professional successes during his first couple of weeks on the campaign trail. He defended state trooper Ryan Londregan from murder and manslaughter charges in the 2023 shooting death of motorist Ricky Cobb II, and he helped Best Buy uncover a kickback scheme involving one of its own executives and a supplier, among other things.

“The difference between me and literally the rest of [the candidates] is that I’ve actually accomplished things,” Madel said in a recent interview.

Madel has made a strong impression with GOP activists so far. During a GOP forum in southwestern Minnesota last week, he sought to distinguish himself from the politicians in the race, criticizing them for not doing more to crack down on fraud in state welfare programs: “All of the state government — Republicans and Democrats — have done nothing with respect to fraud.”

Maple Grove state Rep. Kristin Robbins and former gubernatorial nominee Jensen were dealt an early blow in the GOP’s winter straw poll, garnering only 13 votes and eight votes, respectively. It was a disappointing finish for two candidates who have been in the race for several months now.

Robbins, who chairs the Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Committee in the Minnesota House, is facing scrutiny from some delegates over her past work for Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential campaign in Minnesota. She also is running in the same center-right, establishment-adjacent lane as Demuth and Qualls, making it difficult to distinguish herself.

Jensen is facing skepticism for having already lost to Walz in 2022 by about 7.5 percentage points, and for shifting his positions on abortion and other issues. It’s unclear if he has as much sway with the party’s grassroots activists as he did three years ago.

Even so, Jensen and Robbins appear ready to forge ahead to the state GOP convention, and possibly beyond. Robbins said in early September that her campaign raised $500,000 in its first two weeks. And Jensen’s name recognition as the most recent nominee is likely to help him raise money to keep his campaign afloat.

The fight for the GOP nomination could stretch into the August primary election. Several candidates have said they will not abide by the party’s endorsement, including Madel, Robbins and Jensen.

Some Republicans believe the party’s endorsement process has become too beholden to a small group of far-right activists. By defying the endorsement, GOP candidates would give a broader pool of voters in the August primary election a say on which Republican is best positioned to defeat Walz.

But a primary fight could also divide GOP voters, drain candidate resources and delay the party from settling on a nominee until three months before the general election.