On Monday, the Washington Post published an extensive analysis based on documents containing interviews with more than 400 people involved in the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The papers show not only that U.S. policy under presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump failed to bring peace and modernization to Afghanistan, but also that policymakers were aware that such an outcome was unlikely — all while emphasizing progress in public.
I asked several experts to weigh in with key takeaways on what these papers reveal about the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, and the U.S. decision-making process in foreign policy.
Below, with minor edits, are their responses:
1. From Asfandyar Mir, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, who says there was no coherent U.S. policy for Afghanistan:
The Afghanistan documents suggest that for much of the war, the United States recognized and communicated major challenges, including Afghanistan's geographic and social complexity, President Hamid Karzai's cronyism, perils of warlords, Pakistan's "double game," government corruption and poor intelligence. Yet U.S. policymakers failed to align policy solutions with the challenges they confronted.
There is an echo of Vietnam in these disclosures, especially the argument made by Leslie Gelb, who directed the Pentagon Papers project, and Richard Betts, that successive presidents knew the war was unwinnable but simply aimed not to lose it. But two features stand out from the Afghanistan documents. First, there was some zeal, particularly among senior generals, that a version of victory was attainable — given the Iraq surge turnaround and the counterinsurgency approach some military leaders embraced there.
Second, despite this zeal, the disclosures show that for much of the war, there was no coherent U.S. policy for Afghanistan — instead, there was strategic drift. There was a lot of stumbling into assumptions and priorities, suggesting limited intentionality and confusion about available options and strategic ends. For example, U.S. policymakers contested and redefined the importance of the Afghan Taliban as an adversary throughout the war.
Such problems are not new to American national security and can result from weak political oversight. In the case of Afghanistan, Presidents Bush and Obama neglected the war, with the former prioritizing Iraq and the latter prioritizing the fight against Al-Qaida. Consequently, as is common in situations of strategic drift, those within military and civilian bureaucracies worked to maximize their own institutional interests — often at the cost of U.S. service members, taxpayers and Afghan civilians.
2. From Sarah Kreps, is a professor of government at Cornell University, who says Congress and the public didn't seem interested in how much the war cost:
These newly released documents point to the growing disconnect between the public and the conduct of American wars, especially when it comes to how much the war in Afghanistan cost and how U.S. and Afghan officials spent that money. My research shows that one of the significant reasons for that gap has to do with how the United States was paying for the war.