Going old-school: Kevin O’Connell won’t repeat as Coach of the Year. Who will take the mantle?

On the NFL insider Mark Craig looks around the league, finds eight coaches leading notable turnarounds, and picks winners of every Week 13 game.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 28, 2025 at 3:22PM
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, left, and quarterback Drake Maye have the best record in the AFC at 10-2. (Winslow Townson/The Associated Press)

Who ya got for Coach of the Year?

The only thing we know for certain about this year’s NFL Coach of the Year race is Kevin O’Connell will not be repeating.

The Vikings coach currently leads one of only two teams that made the playoffs last season and are under .500 this year. Washington, which is 3-8 after reaching the NFC title game in Year 1 under Dan Quinn, is the other.

As for the flip side of these two one-year flops, a whopping eight coaches were leading teams that missed the playoffs last year and were .500 or above entering Week 13. They are:

  • New England (4-13 to 10-2 and the AFC’s top seed).
    • Jacksonville (4-13 to 7-4).
      • Chicago (5-12 to 8-3 heading into Friday’s game at Philadelphia).
        • Carolina (5-12 to 6-6).
          • San Francisco (6-11 to 8-4).
            • Dallas (7-10 to 6-5-1 after Thursday’s win over the Chiefs).
              • Indianapolis (8-9 to 8-3).
                • Seattle (10-7 to 8-3).

                  Four of the eight head coaches above are in their first year with their current team: Mike Vrabel, a former coach of the year in Tennessee, in New England; and first-year head coaches Ben Johnson in Chicago, Liam Coen in Jacksonville and Brian Schottenheimer in Dallas.

                  There’s a long way to go in this race, but there certainly isn’t a lack of qualified front-runners to take the torch from K.O.

                  My top two at this point: Vrabel and Johnson.

                  Are the Bills a playoff team?

                  Buffalo (7-4) heads to Pittsburgh (6-5) hoping that the second of four road games in five weeks doesn’t further sink its chances of a seventh straight playoff bid. The Bills are 2-3 on the road and coming off 10 days of rest since their loss at Houston. Buffalo came into this week clinging to the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. After facing a Steelers team that’s 4-2 at home, Buffalo returns home for Cincinnati before heading to New England, which is 4-2 at home, and Cleveland, which has Myles Garrett, his 18 (and counting) sacks and a home upset of the Packers under its belt. To put the Bills’ six-year playoff streak in a perspective that local fans can understand, the last time the Vikings made the playoffs six straight years was 1973-78, a run that saw them lose three Super Bowls in six years.

                  Stat of the week

                  86.1: Bo Nix’s 22nd-ranked passer rating as he leads Denver (9-2) into Washington (3-8) with a chance to win a ninth straight game to reach 10 wins for the second time in two seasons since being the sixth of six quarterbacks drafted in the first 12 picks in 2024. Nix is a gritty and well-groomed winner playing for a complete team. It doesn’t matter that his passer rating is a notch below benched Saints QB Spencer Rattler (88.1) and four below benched Jets QB Justin Fields (89.5).

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                  Did you know?

                  The slumping Colts (8-3) are 5-0 at home and have scored at least 29 points in each of those wins entering Sunday’s game against visiting Houston (6-5). Houston, however, ranks second in scoring defense (16.5), has won three straight and four of five, and has the first set of NFL edge rushers to both reach 10 sacks since 2019. Former Viking Danielle Hunter has 11 while Will Anderson Jr. has 10½, including a league-leading six straight games with at least one sack.

                  Vikings thought of the week

                  The top 100.5 million reasons I won’t criticize the team for not re-signing Sam Darnold and sticking with J.J. McCarthy ...

                  Reasons 1-100,499,996: The dollars it took to sign Darnold. Too steep for a team that drafts poorly and needed hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on other teams’ older cast-offs to fill key holes throughout the roster.

                  Reasons 100,499,997-100,500,000: Darnold’s 0-4 record in last season’s biggest games against the Lions and Rams. If you’re not trying to finish first, who cares if you’re last?

                  Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright, left, intercepts a pass intended for the Vikings' Jordan Addison in a game Nov. 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Anthony Souffle/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                  NFC North thought of the week

                  This thought came to mind ahead of the Bears’ Black Friday game at Philadelphia: Through 11 games, Chicago cornerback Nahshon Wright had five interceptions (two against the Vikings), a pick-six (against the Vikings), a career-high 10 passes defensed (two against the Vikings), two fumble recoveries and three tackles for loss (one against the Vikings). With all of that in mind, why did the Vikings let him leave for Chicago and a one-year, $1.1 million deal while signing Jeff Okudah to a one-year, $2.35 million deal?

                  Week 13 picks

                  Bears (+7) at Eagles: Chicago’s run defense isn’t good enough to win at Philly after the Eagles just lost a heartbreaker. Eagles 24-20

                  Vikings (+10½) at Seahawks: It’s not a big game against a playoff team, so Sam Darnold shouldn’t fold like a cheap suit now making $100 million. Seahawks 31-9

                  Texans (+4½) at Colts: Houston’s top-ranked defense keeps Danny Dimes looking more like a two-bit QB the past month. Texans 19-16

                  Jaguars (-6½) at Titans: Trevor Lawrence had four turnovers last week and got a win on his résumé. #wins-r-not-an-individual-stat. Titans 20-17

                  Rams (-10½) at Panthers: Dear J.J. McCarthy, I too was 2-4 through six NFL starts. Chin up. Sincerely, Matthew Stafford. Rams 30-24

                  Saints (+5½) at Dolphins: Miami has won two straight, is coming off a bye and now plays the Saints and Jets. Talk about screwing up a draft pick. Dolphins 21-14

                  49ers (-5½) at Browns: Speaking of not wanting to screw up a draft pick, can Myles Garrett switch sides if Shedeur Sanders gets the Browns a lead? 49ers 24-14

                  Cardinals (+3) at Buccaneers: When in doubt, pick whichever team is playing the Cardinals. Buccaneers 30-21

                  Bills (-3½) at Steelers: Blather on about Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers while I pick against Buffalo’s run defense — or lack thereof — again. Steelers 24-21

                  Raiders (+9½) at Chargers: Pete Carroll has six games and one opening-day coordinator left before he has to fire himself. Chargers 33-17

                  Broncos (-6½) at Commanders: Dear Sean Payton, Great defense, a running game and a cheap QB? No fair! You stole our plan! Sincerely, Kevin O’Connell. Broncos 19-16

                  Giants (+7½) at Patriots: Dear Mike Vrabel, Great defense, a running game and a cheap QB? No fair! You stole our plan! Sincerely, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Patriots 33-23

                  Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins defeated the Saints on Sunday starting in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr. (Tyler Kaufman/The Associated Press)

                  Upset special

                  Falcons (-2½) at Jets: Kirk Cousins won last week. And the Kirk Cousins Law of Utter Averageness now mandates he lose or the universe explodes. Jets 20-19

                  Last week’s pick: Steelers (+2½) 28, Bears 23. Final: Bears 31, Steelers 28. Record: 3-8.

                  Season results

                  Last week/season straight up: 9-5/98-61.

                  Last week/season against the spread: 6-8/68-91.

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                  about the writer

                  about the writer

                  Mark Craig

                  Sports reporter

                  Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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