Neal: New Twins manager Derek Shelton, unlike predecessors, is not set up for success

The hiring of Derek Shelton as the next Twins manager means one thing is certain.

The club is headed for another smooth transition because of familiarity.

Will that mean a strong start?

In my Kansas City days, I covered managers Hal McRae, Bob Boone and Tony Muser; then Tom Kelly, Ron Gardenhire, Paul Molitor and Rocco Baldelli with the Twins, so I’ve been around regime changes.

When Boone replaced McRae in 1995, he let everyone around him know he was the smartest man in the room. Muser replaced Boone during the 1997 season and rankled players by banning golf clubs on road trips.

The Twins historically hire managers who have had some sort of connection with the club. And they have thrived because of it. Now, here’s a homecoming for their former bench coach in Shelton.

He knows the organization well, down to the director of team travel and the equipment manager. He has a previous relationship with team President Derek Falvey. He won’t need a tour of Target Field. He knows the region and its fans.

Shelton is the first manager hired by the Twins with previous managing experience since Gene Mauch in 1976. Shelton knows how to address a clubhouse. He can manage a bullpen. He knows how to compile a spring training schedule. He’s media savvy.

He knows how to win, but not with Pittsburgh, where his teams never finished above fourth place in six seasons. He has won here.

And based on how first-year Twins managers have settled in during my time on the beat, there’s history to repeat.

On Jan. 4, 2002, Gardenhire replaced Kelly, who stepped down following the 2001 season. Gardenhire had been a coach for 11 years in the organization. As Kelly’s right-hand man, there wasn’t much of a switch in terms of philosophy, just delivery.

Kelly had a dry sense of humor and was acerbic at times. Gardenhire was gregarious, enjoyed self-deprecating humor and pulled pranks on his players and coaches.

The Twins had eight consecutive losing seasons under Kelly before 2001, and were finally an above-.500 team when he stepped away at age 50.

On Day 1, Gardenhire made Eddie Guardado his closer and Jacque Jones his leadoff hitter.

Gardenhire was embraced by the players, the Twins went 94-67 in his first season, and won the first of six division titles under him.

When Gardenhire took over, Kelly still showed up at spring training as a special instructor, roaming around the back fields with a fungo bat.

Molitor was around, too, as a coach or instructor through the years. There was no introduction required when the Hall of Famer took over for Gardenhire in 2015. Because of his previous roles, Molitor also was familiar with The Twins Way and knew some players from working with them in the minors.

“Everyone in that room knew Molly,” Dozier said. “So the transition from Gardy to Molly wasn’t that big of a deal.”

The players responded to Molitor, as the Twins went 83-79 in 2015 after losing at least 92 games in each of the previous four under Gardenhire.

Falvey and Thad Levine were brought in to overhaul baseball operations. Molitor’s time ran out in 2018 following an 84-loss season.

The organization’s embracing of analytics began toward the end of Gardenhire’s career and increased under Molitor — who managed to get old-school Guardado to sit in front of a computer a couple times as the bullpen coach.

Falvey and Levine took analytics to another level, and they picked Baldelli — an outsider (gasp) — to lead the team.

“Shelty helped a ton with the transition in 2019,” Baldelli said Friday. “He took on many responsibilities and nailed them all.”

The two clicked as the Twins went all-in on statistical analysis. Wes Johnson was inserted as pitching coach. James Rowson was in his third year as hitting coach.

The Twins won 101 games in Baldelli’s first season.

To recap Twins managers in their first season, going back 38 years: Kelly wins a World Series. Gardenhire wins a division title. Molitor comes through with a winning record. Baldelli produces the second 100-win season in club history.