Speaking on the Senate floor in July, Oklahoma's James Inhofe — soon to head, once again, the Senate's Environment and Public Works Committee — made a claim that has become quite prevalent among skeptics of climate change.
"For the past 15 years," Inhofe said, "temperatures across the globe have not increased."
Inhofe was offering one of the favorite arguments of skeptics, namely, that global warming paused or slowed down since the very hot year of 1998.
But the argument has one big problem. According to a preliminary assessment by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 2014 was the hottest year on record for the globe. That surpasses the year 1998 (now in second place in the JMA data set) and 2013 and 2010 (now tied for third).
The upward trend is quite clear, and the decade of the 2000s is plainly warmer than the decade of the 1990s. So much for any "pause" in global warming.
Japan's is the first major meteorological outlet to pronounce on how 2014 ranks for temperatures. But if others — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.K. Met Office's Hadley Center — concur with the agency, it could be a serious blow to the "pause" argument.
Let's consider the "pause" notion itself. It went truly mainstream in 2013, when the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the first part of its much-awaited Fifth Assessment Report.
In a poorly worded statement, a leaked draft of the IPCC's report observed that the rate of global temperature increase, during the 15-year period from 1998 to 2012, was somewhat less than the rate of increase from 1951 to 2012. In other words, while the IPCC didn't say the globe had stopped warming, it did suggest a situation that is a bit like a driver easing off the accelerator in a moving car.