We can dissect any number of reasons the Timberwolves have a losing record (13-14) at this point in the season, but it might be as simple as 1-2-3.
For the Timberwolves, there's now a math problem when it comes to three-pointers
A strength last season has turned into a weakness this year, and the Wolves can't make up for it by being better on two-point shots.
December 13, 2022 at 5:39PM
The Wolves are first in three-pointers allowed per game (14.2) this season, second in three-point attempts allowed (37.7) and third in three-point field goal percentage allowed (37.8). None of those, of course, are positive stats.
Combine those ugly numbers with these: On offense, the Wolves rank No. 22 in threes made per game (11.0) an No. 25 in three-point field goal percentage (33.4).
Basically every game, they are getting outscored by about 10 points from three-point range, and they are yielding those points in a way that is efficient for opponents.
Portland's blowout win over the Wolves on Monday was an extreme — 21 made threes to the Wolves 10, with Damian Lillard's 11 makes accounting for the huge gap — but to brush aside Lillard as "just a hot hand" as Wolves coach Chris Finch did after the game doesn't do justice to a season-long trend.
The Wolves clearly miss the players they dealt away in the Rudy Gobert trade, as I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
Last season, with Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt playing key roles, the Wolves ranked No. 1 in three-pointers attempted per game (41.3) and No. 12 in accuracy (35.8%). Opponents shot just 35.0% from deep (No. 19) and the Wolves outscored opponents by about five points per game from three-point range.
Beverley took every defensive assignment as a personal challenge, and more often than not that was a good thing. Vanderbilt played power forward but was athletic enough to switch on just about anyone and could run shooters off the three-point line. Beasley made more than three long-distance shots per game.
The addition of Gobert meant a transition away from that, but it has been startling to see just how large the gap has become from beyond the arc. The Wolves don't have enough shooters and don't have enough defenders capable of limiting a team from deep.
It adds up to a big problem, and a math deficit that can't be overcome easily by the fourth-best shooting percentage on two-pointers (57.9) this season.
Three is always going to be bigger than two, a lesson the Wolves are learning the hard way.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
