Massive market rally leaves stocks in a soaring but strange place

The late summer positivity is pervasive on Wall Street.

That’s what a massive rally in stock prices will do.

Consider us as excited as everyone else that the S&P 500 has soared more than 30% since its April low. Recency bias will lead investors to feel like the good times are likely to keep rolling (and roll on they might). But let’s take a moment to appreciate the significance of what equities have done and point out some unusual features of our current market conditions.

When the S&P set a new all-time high on June 27, it capped the benchmark’s swiftest-ever recovery from a decline of at least 15%. In only 89 trading days, the S&P lost 20% from its high, then rallied all the way back.

Since then, the positive momentum has persisted, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P rose 2.2% in July and has grinded slightly higher thus far in August. But as the largest companies continue to deliver the biggest gains, the market has become ever more concentrated.

The largest seven stocks in the S&P 500 (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Broadcom) now make up 35% of the benchmark. If we include the 10 largest companies, that number rises to 40%. Earlier this month, Nvidia’s market capitalization grew so large that it became the first company to represent 8% of the S&P 500 on its own.

In terms of sector performance, technology’s trailing three-month returns have doubled the second- and third-best sectors. The NASDAQ finished July on one of its longest-ever stretches trading above its 20-day moving average (second only to a period in 1999). With that in mind, it’s no wonder you’re starting to hear comparisons between current market conditions and the late 1990s.

As of Aug. 12, the S&P 500 had made 16 all-time highs so far this year. But equities are not the only asset class setting records. Home prices, measured nationally, just set an all-time high. Bitcoin, the poster child for cryptocurrencies, is near its all-time high. Gold is near an all-time high.

As every consumer knows, the price of “stuff” is also near all-time highs. The most recent consumer price index (CPI) data released this week showed 2.7% inflation from a year earlier. The inflation numbers were in line with expectations, but the bigger concern is whether it will meaningfully re-accelerate once the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts as soon as next month.

Corporate earnings cumulatively are not quite at record levels, but they continue to outperform expectations. As we near the end of second-quarter reporting season, the blended annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is almost 12%. This will almost certainly be the third-consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

So everything seems to be up, which is something worth celebrating and something worth your attention. As we often mention, momentum can be a powerful driver of market movements and is something working in stocks’ favor. But we would advise against chasing performance based on the fear of missing out on gains.

The best stretches for stocks often lead investors to further increase risk at inopportune times. The final four months of 2025 will not be as strong as the previous four. A disciplined approach and “responsible growth” should be the goal, even though we can agree “remarkable growth” warrants appreciation when it happens.