The firings of Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman had barely been official for more than a few minutes Monday before many of us pivoted quickly to the future.
Ranking the NFL head coaching openings. The Vikings have the best — and the worst
Two extreme lists show how the beauty of an NFL opportunity is in the eye of the beholder
January 11, 2022 at 5:17PM
The seduction of what might happen next is the secret sauce of modern sports, and particularly the speculation-driven NFL.
What we tend to forget, though, is that key decisions in the draft, free agency and major hires — the latter particularly relevant here — tend to be a two-way street. The Vikings can't pick the player they want at No. 12 in the first round in the 2022 draft if Washington grabs him at No. 11. A free agent might want more money or a warmer winter than Minnesota can offer.
And a top contender to be the next head coach of the Vikings might look at any of the other vacancies around the league and find another opportunity more attractive.
To that end, lists of potential candidates like the one our Mark Craig put together are useful guideposts. But six teams fired coaches either during the season or on Monday. More could fall as the week goes on.
Who the Vikings are able to hire largely will depend on just how attractive this job really is. And that is a nuanced question when you dig into it, as I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
You could make the case that the Vikings' job is the best of the openings. You could make the case that it's the worst. In fact, two different outlets did just that.
*Two weeks ago, ESPN's Bill Barnwell took a look at potential openings and concluded the Vikings — if they fired Zimmer, which of course they did — would have the most attractive job in the league.
His main points: A coach could win with the Vikings immediately given their talent OR could re-craft the team to fit his style. And the Wilf family was patient enough to give Zimmer eight years, the sort of stability that more impulsive franchises might not offer.
*NFL.com's Judy Battista, on the other hand, agrees with those Barnwell points but thinks the Vikings' bad cap situation, quarterback uncertainty and an aging defense that underperformed in 2021 are enough to make it the least attractive of the open jobs.
Here's how I would rank the openings:
1 — Denver: The Broncos have seemed to be a QB away from contention for several years, and they would be a natural destination for Aaron Rodgers (or Kirk Cousins) in an offseason trade. Maybe the best mix of cap space, tradition and upside on this list.
2 — Jacksonville: Talk about a blank slate with nowhere to go but up. The Jaguars drafted their franchise QB (Trevor Lawrence) and fired their first-year coach (Urban Meyer) before the year was over. They again have the No. 1 overall pick plus the third-most cap space in the league. The right coach could turn this into a powerhouse in 2-3 years.
3 — Vikings: The salary cap is a mess, and a decision on Cousins (trade, extend or lame duck final year at $45 million) looms. But there is enough high-end talent to be competitive right away, and history shows a new coach will be given time to see a potential turnaround come through.
4 — Las Vegas: The Raiders are a playoff team this year and could retain interim coach Rich Bisaccia. But their success this season feels like a bit of fool's gold, with a regression in 2022 likely. And they, too, face a long-term decision on erratic QB Derek Carr.
5 — Miami: A new coach will walk into a position with the most cap space in the league and a team that won 19 games the last two seasons. But do you want to work for an owner who fired the coach (Brian Flores) who put you in that spot?
6 — Chicago: Plenty of cap space and some talent left on defense. But unless you think more highly of Justin Fields (which I don't at this point), this feels like a dead end job and another do-over in 2-3 years.
Agree? Disagree? Let's hear it in the comments.
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