Health outlook: Big stories to track now, with takeaways for your business

Few industries are as difficult to penetrate or complicated to report on as health insurance, but Christopher Snowbeck leads the way — breaking news and putting it into context that makes readers feel smarter. With hospitals in financial distress, insurance costs spiking and the standoff between the University of Minnesota and Fairview Health Services dragging on, I asked Snowbeck, who has covered the healthcare industry for 30 years, to share some insider perspective and a look ahead.

You report on companies that are notoriously tight-lipped with the media. How do you get the scoops?

My sources are great. I have relationships with a lot of folks in and near the insurance industry. I’m also a dedicated reader of regulatory filings and audited financial statements, which is a throwback to studying medieval history at Carleton College. The connection is obvious, right?

Filings and financial statements provide tips. Sources help me understand these tips via conversation. It’s a process of discovery that I really enjoy — and I think sources recognize that I’m genuinely curious.

Were you expecting health costs to go up as much as they are trending for 2026?

Yes and no. Last fall, Mercer projected that employer health plan costs in 2026 would increase 6.5%, the biggest projected increase in 15 years. That’s a dramatic description of things. A more ho-hum approach is to say, the 6.5% increase this year isn’t that different than Mercer’s projected 6% increase going into 2025. And as Drew Altman at KFF pointed out last year, none of the recent percent changes is big like the jumps we were writing about back in the early 2000s.

So, while I wasn’t surprised by a 6.5% increase, I’m adjusting my expectations for the corresponding financial pain. My sense is that base health care costs are so high now, a 6.5% increase today might well require more spending than a 12% increase did in 2002. I need to analyze this with a spreadsheet (another thing I love about reporting) and adjust for inflation, but I’m thinking there’s some truth in this idea.

Last week’s Congressional grilling of UnitedHealth Group CEO Stephen Hemsley did bring some drama! What advice would you give to businesses as they manage employees who are disgruntled about skyrocketing costs?

I think employers should be as transparent as possible with employees. Rather than simply announcing next year’s premiums, take the time to calculate the percent changes — don’t make workers look up the previous year’s rates and do the math themselves. If rates are going up 15% and HR hasn’t called this out, workers will be suspicious.

Also, many workers don’t know that employer subsidies with health plans are very large. Share the details. Assuming that employers in a bad year are sharing the financial pain alongside workers, it helps employees if they can see the math. If employers are visiting more pain on workers than the company, just put it out there and explain why. Clear is kind – especially when the news is lousy.

What should we know about the ongoing standoff between the University of Minnesota and Fairview Health Services? How likely is it to affect businesses and consumers this year?

The impact to businesses and consumers is down the road. Yet it’s important to watch closely now, because detrimental changes that happen slowly at the U also are slow to reverse. One way to sum it up is the word “innovation.” A top-notch academic medical center recruits and retains physician scientists who develop new cures for patients and can help create and sustain companies in the regional economy. Uncertainty about the future could prompt physicians to leave the Twin Cities. They also might flee if they don’t have faith in the strategic direction. At the same time, there are a lot of public dollars at play in the U of M universe, so proper stewardship of that funding is important since the academic medical center is, at heart, a public-private partnership. I’ll do my best this year to show the stakes.

I think we’re not quite there yet, in knowing the takeaway. Here are the two key questions I’m trying to answer: To what extent was the Medicaid business the problem at UCare vs. the Medicare Advantage business? And then, once trouble emerged, how quickly did management respond? Those answers should lead us to the moral of the story.

What health insurance stories are you expecting to be consequential in 2026?

I think the financial woes at UnitedHealth Group will continue to be a huge story. The company was so incredibly profitable for so many years, the stock sell-off in 2025 remains highly remarkable. Will CEO Stephen Hemsley fix things? And what does “fix” mean for various stakeholders?

The UCare fallout will be a big story, too. I’m not sure if hospitals will be stuck with unpaid bills, but it’s important to watch. UCare enjoyed a lot of goodwill from patients and health care providers. Is that because the company was too generous in paying claims? Or was there a “secret sauce” the company found and employed for many years, only for things to go very bad at the end? About half a million people were covered by UCare last year. Where did they go? What will their arrival mean for the new health insurers?

Finally, UCare is a nonprofit that’s shutting down after growing too fast. Another local nonprofit, PreferredOne, is gone via acquisition after growing too fast about a decade ago. In that time span, UnitedHealthcare (for-profit) has been growing in Minnesota. What are the strengths and weaknesses of for-profit versus nonprofit health insurance?

I started this conversation by saying: My sources are great. I should add that my readers are great, too. I’m getting more positive feedback than ever about my coverage, because I think we’re doing a better job of closely examining the problems people experience with the health care system.

Also, I’m lucky to work for Joe Carlson, an outstanding editor who’s a great partner in making our coverage the best it can be. If we can help the Star Tribune reflect difficult truths that matter to readers, what more could I want?

The CEOs speak: Following the weekend killing of Alex Pretti, the chief executives of Minnesota’s largest businesses banded together Sunday to pen an open letter calling for an “immediate deescalation” of the violence in the state. It marks a notable shift for Minnesota’s top employers that had previously remained quiet about the surge of immigration officials in the state and the killing of Renee Good.

Winmark joins S&P: Plymouth-based Winmark Corp. is being added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, effective before the open of trading on Jan. 26. Winmark replaces the retailer Guess Inc. The franchising company behind Play it Again Sports, Plato’s Closet, Once Upon a Child and other concepts is expected to have annual revenue of approximately $85 million in 2025 and a market cap that has grown to $1.6 billion.

Target’s new board members: Target Corp. has elected two retail leaders to its board of directors. John Hoke III, is the former chief innovation officer at Nike Inc. and Steve Bratspies is the former CEO of HanesBrands. Hoke will join on March 1 and Bratspies on April 1. CEO Brian Cornell will continue to serve as executive chair of the board once Michael Fiddelke succeeds him on Feb. 1.