NFL Week 4 preview and picks: Maybe the Falcons should give Kirk Cousins another chance

On the NFL insider Mark Craig takes a spin around the league and finds Michael Penix Jr. struggling, Daniel Jones soaring and the Bills gaining his trust.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
September 25, 2025 at 7:30PM
Among opening-day starters, Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s passer rating of 71.3 is worse than everyone’s but Trevor Lawrence (70.3) and Joe Flacco (65.9). (Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Welcome to a weekly look at the NFL’s next round of games. A peek that will be less quarterback-crazy and more about offensive lines, defense, running games, maybe even the occasional punter, for gosh sakes, and all things that make this the greatest team game ever invented, not the star-driven individualized sport that too many of us try to make it out to be. An effort will be made to keep the tone somewhere between Old-School and “Get off my lawn!”

Rant of the week

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. isn’t untouchable. He might have a bright future, but people need to stop gushing about him like he’s already great and above being benched. He showed some promise in going 1-2 after supplanting Kirk Cousins as a rookie last year. People fawned. Too much. Too soon. This year, he’s again 1-2 and not very good. Among opening-day starters, his passer rating of 71.3 is worse than everyone’s but Trevor Lawrence (70.3) and Joe Flacco (65.9). The Falcons are coming off a 30-0 shutout loss at woeful Carolina. They’re 31st in scoring (14.0). Penix had a career-low 40.5 passer rating and missed several open receivers in getting shockingly blanked as the betting favorite.

Next up is 2-1 Washington at home. The Commanders have the league’s best third-down defense (28.57%). If I’m paying Kirk Cousins a guaranteed $100 million and he’s only started 14 games ($7.1 million a start so far), I’m taking the untouchable crown off Penix – eighth overall pick or not -- and handing it to Cousins if things stay ugly on Sunday.

Dumb kicking rule of the week

Week 3 saw four blocked field goals – the most in a single week since at least 1991 – and four walk-off game-winning field goals. With place-kicking this impactful, why in the world does the NFL not address the fact that:

  1. There is no review of field goal attempts that are kicked above the uprights
    1. Such kicks are considered good if the entire ball is deemed to have crossed inside the outside edge of the upright
      1. Why the heck doesn’t the NFL just extend the uprights?

        The Ravens’ Tyler Loop was credited with a questionable field goal in Baltimore’s loss to the Lions on Sunday. It wasn’t reviewable and, basically, the guess was it looked like it probably was good. Never mind the fact it clearly would have doinked off an extended upright.

        Best 3-0 team?

        Which of the NFL’s six 3-0 teams do you trust most not to make you look stupid for saying they are the cream of the crop, most likely to go to 4-0, be the last unbeaten team and win the Super Bowl?

        Choices: Indianapolis (at the 2-1 Rams this week), the Chargers (at the 0-3 Giants), San Francisco (vs. 2-1 Jacksonville), Buffalo (vs. 0-3 New Orleans) and the defending champion Eagles, who visit Tampa Bay in the only game of the week that features two unbeaten teams.

        Answer: Buffalo. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in three games to open a season for the second consecutive year. The last team to do that: The 1948-49 49ers. Buffalo has won 13 straight at home. Reigning MVP Josh Allen has 37 touchdowns (26 passing, 10 rushing, one receiving) and a 105.7 passer rating in those 13 games. In 12 of them, he’s had at least one touchdown passing and one rushing. Sorry for the jinx, Bills fans.

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        Worst 0-3 team?

        The NFL also has six winless teams, four of which play each other in Week 4. In a real bad look for the league, the Jets play at Miami on Monday night. The other mustn’t-see TV game of the week at Tennessee at Houston. As bad as those four and the Giants are, the crud of the crop is New Orleans. The Saints are tied with the Titans for worst point differential (minus-13.7).

        Stat of the week

        3.9 yards per play. That’s all the Browns offense mustered in a 13-10 win over the Packers last Sunday. Of course, Jordan Love and the Packers offense averaged 3.8. The Browns defense ranks second in yards per play allowed (3.76) — behind the Packers (3.73) — and now travel to Detroit, which is 2-1 with an offense averaging 6.26 yards per play, No. 3 behind Indianapolis (6.61) and Baltimore (6.32).

        Former Vikings quarterback Daniel Jones has led the Colts to a 3-0 record. (George Walker IV/The Associated Press)

        Quote of the week

        quote

        He’s doing it right now as good as it gets

        Colts coach Steve Steichen on quarterback Daniel Jones’ unexpected 3-0 start.

        Jones heads into this week’s game against the Rams with a 111.7 passer rating. His highest passer rating in six previous NFL seasons was 92.5 in 2022, the year he went 9-6-1 and used (and abused) former Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell’s ridiculously soft defensive schemes — in the Purple’s one-and-done playoff appearance — to coax the Giants into giving him the mega-deal contract that he couldn’t live up to.

        Game of the week

        Eagles at Buccaneers. The reigning Super Bowl-champion Eagles got to 3-0 by coming back from 19 points down to beat the Rams with two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter, the first team to block two in the fourth quarter since at least 1978. The Bucs got to 3-0 by becoming the first team of the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to post the game-winning score in the final minute in each of its first three games. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni can start 4-0 for the third time in four seasons. Hired by the Eagles in 2021, his regular-season winning percentage of .718 (96-34-6) ranks fourth all-time behind Hall of Famers Guy Chamberlin (.784), John Madden (.759) and Vince Lombardi (.738).

        Did you know?

        The Cowboys gave up five pass plays longer than 28 yards against the Bears last week. Next up: Home against a Packers’ offense that is itching to stretch its legs after being stifled in Cleveland. Green Bay is fourth in average yards per pass (7.74).

        Vikings thought of the week

        They avoid Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field this week in Dublin and Cleveland’s Dawg Pound next week in London. And the Browns won’t travel overseas until next week after a no-doubt physical game against the Lions in Detroit. Not a bad two-week advantage for Carson Wentz as he tries to keep J.J. McCarthy’s high-ankle sprain on an extended rehab assignment.

        NFC North thought of the week

        Forgive me, Detroit, for I knew not what I had done. Actually, I did, but, dang, 224 yards rushing and seven sacks of Lamar Jackson a week after scoring 52 points? That’s not good for those of us who had predicted the demise of Detroit. This calls for some serious reverse jinxing. Here goes: The Lions will sweep the Browns at home, Bengals and Chiefs on the road and the Bucs at home to take a 6-1 record into their Nov. 2 home game against the Vikings.

        Vikings defensive linemen Jalen Redmond (61) and defensive end Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (90) run through drill during practice on Sept. 18. (Elizabeth Flores/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

        Question for Vikings DT Jalen Redmond

        You’re spending a week and a half on a business trip to Dublin and London. The bucket-list golfer in me has to ask, ‘Have you thought about calling in sick to K.O. and hitting the links?

        “I do golf. A little bit. I’m not that good, though. I don’t have a handicap. … Shoot, I don’t even keep track of my score. I’m not sure where we’re staying, whether there’s a golf course nearby. Last year, that was my first time going overseas. We didn’t stay on a golf course in London, I know that. The place we stayed was a little creepy, old, I’m not lying. … I’m not sure they’d want me playing golf. I picked it up in 2022 after I had my son. I don’t have the time to play. Actually, I do have the time. I just don’t play much. So I think, no, I will stick with football this time. I’m better at football.”

        Week 4 picks

        Seahawks (-1½) at Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. needs to catch the ball or drop his name. Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20

        Vikings (-2) vs. Steelers in Dublin: The Vikings finally have the Rodgers who isn’t washed up. Vikings 28, Steelers 17

        Commanders (-1½) at Falcons: Atlanta, this is your Week 4 wake-up call. Falcons 21, Commanders 19

        Saints (+16½) at Bills: New Orleans, this will be your Week 4 knockout punch. Bills 34, Saints 21

        Browns (+8½) at Lions: If offense and scoring weren’t a thing, Cleveland would rule over more than just a cocky Packers team. Lions 16, Brown 10

        Titans (+7) at Texans: If offense and scoring weren’t a thing, someone outside in Nashville or Houston might watch this game. Texans 9, Titans 6

        Panthers (+5½) at Patriots: We’d hand Pats running back Rhamondre Stevenson a compliment, but he’d just fumble it. Patriots 16, Panthers 13

        Chargers (-6½) at Giants: Benched a week after throwing for 450 yards, Russell Wilson demands weekly trades to whoever is playing the Cowboys. Chargers 24, Giants 16

        Colts (+3½) at Rams: How good is Danny Dimes in Indy right now? His punter, Rigoberto Sanchez, is making $2.5 million per his only punt. Rams 31, Colts 26

        Jaguars (+3) at 49ers: The Jags lead the league in takeaways (9). The 49ers lead the league in “You mean we have to win after another guy got hurt?” 49ers 26, Jaguars 20

        Ravens (-2½) at Chiefs: If teammates tackling and not fumbling in the fourth quarter weren’t a thing, Lamar Jackson would be undefeated. Chiefs 28, Ravens 27

        Bears (+1½) at Raiders: If the Bears played the Cowboys every week, they’d be undefeated. Raiders 21, Bears 17

        Packers (-7) at Cowboys: If only Jerry Jones had an edge rusher as good as Myles Garrett to throw at Jordan Love. Wait, he did. Packers 40, Cowboys 21

        Jets (+2½) at Dolphins: Miami gets its first non-moral, we-really-tried-hard-against-Buffalo, actual victory of the season! Dolphins 20, Jets 17

        Bengals (+7) at Broncos: Jake Browning gets nothing but a break from chasing Isaiah Rodgers into the end zone. Broncos 24, Bengals 14

        Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) has his team 3-0 with some last-minute heroics. (Maria Lysaker/The Associated Press)

        Upset special

        Eagles (-3½) at Buccaneers: Houdini Mayfield 4 MVP! Bucs 28-24

        Season results

        Last week’s pick: Rams 24, Eagles 23. Final: Eagles 33, Rams 26. Record: 0-2.

        Last week/season straight up: 10-6/20-12.

        Last week/season against the spread: 8-8/14-18.

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        about the writer

        about the writer

        Mark Craig

        Sports reporter

        Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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