Analysis: This season’s top NFL teams are showing that patience pays off at quarterback

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFC’s current No. 1 seed, have a charge of just $26.47 million on their salary cap this year for Baker Mayfield, the 30-year-old quarterback who’s been to two Pro Bowls after making the Bucs his third team in four years in 2023.

The AFC’s top seed, the 5-1 Indianapolis Colts, are led by Daniel Jones, the 28-year-old former first-round pick who was cut by the New York Giants last year, signed to the Vikings practice squad and landed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Colts. Jones has a career-high 104.4 passer rating in six games with Indianapolis after his time with the Vikings, whose detailed quarterback preparation he praised as “next level” in an interview last week.

Were the season to end today, the NFC’s No. 6 seed would be the Detroit Lions, who acquired former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff as a placeholder QB in the 2022 trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams. The Seattle Seahawks, the No. 5 seed in the conference, are tied for the NFC West lead thanks to the play of Sam Darnold, the former Vikings quarterback who has a 116.0 passer rating and NFL-best 8.92 net yards per attempt after signing a three-year, $100.5 million deal with Seattle in March.

The four quarterbacks, all selected sixth or higher in their respective drafts, are enjoying success with their second (or third or fourth or fifth) teams after being branded as busts when they were dispatched by the clubs that drafted them. It’s true that none of the four became the decade-long QB solution their original teams wanted; only Goff is playing on a market-rate contract. But it’s also a reflection on a quarterback ecosystem that steers teams toward impatience, all while the position’s complexities mean many QBs perform best after years of development.

It makes for helpful context as the Vikings return from their bye week and bring J.J. McCarthy back to practice four weeks after he suffered a right high ankle sprain in the team’s Sept. 14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings have played 22 regular-season games since they took McCarthy 10th overall in the 2024 NFL draft. He has played in just two of them, while the Vikings have gone 16-4 with Darnold and Carson Wentz (playing for his sixth team in as many years after he was taken one pick behind Goff in 2016).

But if the success of QBs like Darnold, Jones, Goff and Mayfield proves there’s a life for former top picks who fizzle out with their initial teams, it might also suggest there’s wisdom in waiting a while before reaching a firm conclusion on McCarthy.

Other than the fourth-quarter comeback he directed in the season opener against the Chicago Bears, the 22-year-old quarterback’s first two games have been marked by difficult moments. McCarthy was sacked on one-sixth of his dropbacks (the highest rate in the NFL, per Sports Info Solutions) and has been intercepted on 7.3% of his throws (the second-highest rate in the league). He has been on target only 64.9% of the time and has taken 3.15 seconds on average to throw. He also hasn’t played with left tackle Christian Darrisaw or wide receiver Jordan Addison, who was suspended for the first three weeks of the season after forming a strong on-field connection with McCarthy during training camp. And coach Kevin O’Connell sounded hopeful Monday that McCarthy had absorbed helpful lessons from Wentz’s three-week stint as the starting QB.

Coaches often talk about a two-stage development process for quarterbacks. The first stage is learning the particulars of their team’s scheme: play names, cadences, protection plans and route concepts. The second, and more advanced, stage is learning how to use those particulars to attack defenses. Kirk Cousins used to say how much a second year in the same scheme helped him play with more clarity and precision; while McCarthy is in his second year in the Vikings offense, his two injuries and relative youth have left him woefully short on game snaps from which to learn. It’s why, before the season, Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, himself a veteran of 17 NFL seasons, compared McCarthy’s development to “a child learning to walk.

“You know they’re going to, but it’s a process they have to go through to get there,” McCown said. “That’s where we are. We’re going to maintain a growth mindset with him, but we’re going to coach him, just like you do with a child. You do the things, expecting them to eventually walk, and we’re coaching him in a manner that expects him playing at a high level. And so we’ll see when that happens.”

The NFL’s collective bargaining agreement does incentivize quicker conclusions on quarterbacks. First-round picks get four-year deals, with a team option for a fifth year. By the end of the 2027 season, the Vikings will have to decide whether McCarthy is worth a lucrative second contract.

The affordability of rookie QB contracts also means teams gear up to do exactly what the Vikings did this season: use the cost savings at quarterback to build a veteran roster full of players they might not be able to afford once they’re paying more for a quarterback. The play of second-year quarterbacks like the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye (the No. 3 pick whom the Vikings prized in last year’s draft) and the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix (who went two spots after McCarthy) also shows how quickly a successful young QB can provide a boost to a franchise.

The Vikings want a clearer sense of McCarthy’s trajectory as soon as they can get it, both to maximize what they can accomplish on his rookie deal and ascertain whether they should give him a second contract. But Nix and Maye made their 23rd and 18th regular-season starts Sunday, respectively; McCarthy is still looking for his third.

That seems worth remembering in McCarthy’s case. Perhaps, if he stays healthy and finds some consistency later this year, there will be a moment for everyone to exhale.