Analysis: How the Vikings flipped the script on the Lions in an upset victory

When T.J. Hockenson caught J.J. McCarthy’s touchdown pass to give the Vikings a 14-7 lead in the first quarter Sunday, he put his former head coach in an unfamiliar position and his current head coach in a new one.

It meant Dan Campbell was coaching behind the Vikings at Ford Field for the first time since Dec. 5, 2021, when Jared Goff hit Amon-Ra St. Brown for a TD as time expired that gave Campbell his first victory as Lions coach. And it meant Kevin O’Connell was calling plays with a lead for the first time at Detroit.

Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talked this offseason about building a team that could win multiple types of fights, from dropback passing games that turned into shootouts to low-scoring slugfests in bad weather. So far this season, though, the Vikings had spent most of their time trying to win games that required a comeback.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings had played only 64 snaps with a lead this season before Sunday, tied with the two-win Browns for the fourth-fewest in the league. Of the three teams with fewer, none of those had won more than one game. The Vikings, before Sunday, hadn’t possessed the ball with a lead since their 48-10 blowout of the Bengals on Sept. 21.

Against the Lions, though, that all changed. Their defense gave up a touchdown on the first series of the game for the third week in a row, but the Vikings answered with TDs on back-to-back drives to take the lead. They ran 43 offensive plays with the lead, while their defense, which had played only 26 snaps with a lead since the Bengals game, got 55.

For J.J. McCarthy in his first game since Week 2, the lead created a buffer that slowed things down for the young quarterback. For the defense, the lead became an accelerant; the Vikings harangued Goff with linebacker blitzes, sacking him a season-high five times and pressuring him on 18 snaps while effectively detaining running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield as an extra pass protector.

O’Connell learned Monday that this was the first time he had coached the Vikings in Detroit with a lead. He was grateful to finally feel the complexion of the game change.

After the Vikings sandwiched two touchdowns around a defensive stop, O’Connell said he “felt like from that point forward, it allowed me to make some decisions regarding field position.

“I thought that was a critical part in the game where maybe in earlier games, or other games previous seasons, you feel like you have to go for some of those fourth-and-3s at midfield. Instead, we were able to execute some sky punts and get them backed up. Outside of really one drive there in the in the second quarter, we really played with the field position advantage for a good chunk of that game.”

Playing with a lead, O’Connell said, “helped mitigate some potential risk” in McCarthy‘s third start, when the Vikings could continue to lean on a run game that gained 142 yards on 29 attempts. The effect of playing much of the second half with a 10-point lead might have been an even bigger boost for the defense.

The Vikings blitzed Goff on 57.1% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, challenging a Lions offensive line that has been thinned by center Frank Ragnow’s retirement and injuries while betting they could reintroduce some of Goff’s old struggles against Brian Flores’ pressures.

They also kept the Lions, who have the NFL’s second-most rushing attempts, from leaning on their run game, as David Montgomery carried only 11 times and Gibbs nine. Gibbs, the Lions’ first-round pick in 2023, has been deadly as a receiver out of the backfield; the Vikings’ blitzes forced him to stay there as a pass blocker more than he ever has.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Gibbs allowed seven pressures on 16 pass-blocking snaps, which tied him for the most allowed by any running back since at least 2018. He had caught 26 passes in the Lions’ first seven games this season and had three catches for 82 yards in Detroit’s previous game. On Sunday, he had only three catches for 3 yards.

“We did want to try to limit his ability in the pass game, because he is as impactful as any running back in the National Football League when he gets the ball in his hands in space,” O’Connell said. ”Taking away some of those plays did seem to kind of help us. Then you obviously worry about the weapons they have at the receiving position and [tight end Sam] LaPorta is as dynamic as it gets. So it all works together. I just thought Flo and the plan the staff had, and then the way the players made it come to life, was really good stuff.”

It gave the Vikings a chance to do something they had rarely done this year, and had never done with O’Connell in Detroit. By answering the Lions’ early score and buying themselves the chance to play in front, they changed the script in Detroit and found a way to make things easier on themselves.

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