Souhan: Kevin O’Connell’s ups and downs coaching Vikings are easily explained

Everyone in sports is looking for an edge.

Coaches, administrators, athletes, bettors, gambling sites, fans, writers, analysts all crave the gambler’s tell, the indicator that will lead to wins and winnings.

The problem with daily analysis of NFL teams is that the victories whitewash problems and losses accentuate negatives. Overreact to one game and you will probably miss the big picture or incorrectly ascribe success and failure to emotions and in-game decisions.

That’s why reactions to Kevin O’Connell during his four seasons as Vikings coach have been fascinating.

His first year, he was a genius.

By the end of his second season, a lot of fans I know were calling for him to be fired.

During his third season, he went back to being a genius.

I’ve joined in the second-guessing. A banged-up Carson Wentz at quarterback, a power back in Jordan Mason in the backfield, facing third-and-1 on the first drive against the Chargers in Los Angeles, and O’Connell calls for a pass? That didn’t make sense.

Yes, O’Connell should have taken Wentz out of that game when it became obvious that Wentz was in extreme pain. Yes, O’Connell should have more succinctly and clearly established that J.J. McCarthy was the franchise quarterback regardless of how Wentz performed.

Those criticisms aside, there really isn’t much mystery about O’Connell as a winning coach, or why his fortunes have fluctuated.

When O’Connell’s chosen starting quarterback is healthy, he is 33-12. That’s a 73.3% win rate.

When O’Connell is forced to play a backup, he is 5-9. That’s a 35.7% win rate.

This season, O’Connell is 2-1 when McCarthy starts and 2-3 with Wentz.

Give O’Connell a healthy starting quarterback, and he’ll win at a stunning rate.

Look further into O’Connell’s record, and you’ll see that health (and rest) are vital to success.

Why did the Vikings look terrible against the Chargers in Los Angeles, and then, in their next game, upset one of the NFL’s best teams in Detroit?

They had to play in Los Angeles on a short week after playing a draining, physical game against the Eagles.

In retrospect, the Vikings had little chance of winning that game.

Why did they win in Detroit?

McCarthy returned and made big plays. The Vikings offense was as healthy as it has been all year, with both tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, playing the whole game. And the Vikings had 10 days to prepare.

Last year, the Vikings looked like they might be the best team in the NFL — until they went to Los Angeles on short rest and lost to the Rams.

Look back at the other lull in O’Connell’s winning tenure, the beginning of the 2023 season, and you’ll find another indicator that goes beyond play calls.

Under O’Connell, the Vikings are 32-4 when they win the turnover battle and 5-18 when they lose it.

To use a term favored by NFL players and coaches, there has been a lot of “noise” around the Vikings this year, because of McCarthy’s injury, Wentz’s arrival and the team’s poor first two months.