Lisa Demuth surges in GOP race for governor with fraud as priority, caution on immigration

Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth waited to make her pitch for governor as the first Republican activists streamed into the lobby of a middle school in Blaine.

President Donald Trump’s immigration operation was blanketing local news, but Demuth talked with an undecided man about a topic that has united Republicans: fraud.

As a freshman legislator, Demuth said she carried a bill meant to fight child care fraud before the scandals rocking Minnesota’s social services programs came to light.

“So as soon as I became speaker, I said we’re going to set up the fraud prevention agency oversight committee,” Demuth said.

So far, her pitch is working. On Feb. 3, Demuth came in first over 11 rivals in a straw poll of activists, vaulting her to front-runner status in the race for the GOP nomination for governor. To get here, Demuth has had to carefully balance her role as a Republican leader in a tied Minnesota House with winning support from a group of activists who have tended to favor firebrand political outsiders.

Her message of taking on fraud at the Capitol may be winning over a Republican base and friendly territory in a general election. But as the legislative session gets underway this month, Demuth is also confronting the president’s immigration operation in Minnesota, a difficult issue that’s drawing DFL attacks and could be a political liability in her campaign for governor.

Republicans have split over how much to criticize or support Trump’s aggressive immigration crackdown as Operation Metro Surge and the killing of two Minnesotans have drawn nationwide attention and backlash.

She told the Minnesota Star Tribune last week that federal agents are in Minnesota “to do their jobs in support of federal laws.” Demuth also said she was encouraged that Trump’s border czar Tom Homan “is looking for ways to make things a little bit different if there are those cases where there have been things carried out in the wrong way.”

Demuth’s rise to power required a balancing act from Day One.

In 2024, voters gave the Minnesota House a 67-67 tie, and Demuth a foothold in power.

She used that slim leverage to win the title of speaker over then-Rep. Melissa Hortman and negotiated to launch the legislative committee to investigate fraud. She forced Democrats to end health care coverage for adult undocumented immigrants, a particularly painful concession for many DFLers.

But Demuth also told the precinct caucusgoer that she and Hortman “worked well together” even though they didn’t agree politically.

Rep. Paul Torkelson, the top Republican House budget negotiator, said Demuth “listens to everyone around the table and tries to form good solid relationships with everyone involved, and congenial relationships.”

“Flamethrowing rarely benefits you in the long run, and I think she understands that,” he said.

Those political wins have been key selling points in her campaign for governor.

After his conversation with Demuth, Ham Lake resident Doug Hoover said he was undecided on his favorite Republican but said one thing that did resonate “is she didn’t negotiate away on certain things because she stood on principle.”

Demuth’s straw poll win doesn’t assure she will get the Republican endorsement or win a primary. Kendall Qualls, an Army veteran and former health care executive finished second, while MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell came in third.

“We can’t go to St. Paul to clean up the mess in St. Paul,” Qualls said.

Qualls’ attack may prove successful in a party that rejected the comeback attempt of former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who recently said a candidate needs to satisfy Trump’s base but also attract independents and Democrats. That can be a tall task. Pawlenty said he couldn’t win the GOP endorsement anymore.

Torkelson said Demuth is “realistic” in negotiations and attracts new GOP endorsing delegates with a “more reasoned approach” than in the past.

“The only real way to impact government is to win,” he said.

Operation Metro Surge is another test of how Demuth can handle politically complex issues.

“The dynamics out here in greater Minnesota are pretty dramatically different than what’s happening in Minneapolis-St. Paul,” Torkelson said.

Demuth’s status as speaker helped her be one of 12 people to meet privately with Vice President JD Vance when he came to Minneapolis in January, largely to back ICE agents, call for de-escalation and blame disorder on state leaders.

Still, Demuth is trying to walk something of a middle ground among Republicans. She has not been as full-throated in defense of ICE as others in the GOP, including the state’s Republican members of Congress.

At times, she has declined to take a stance on controversial issues. On WCCO radio Jan. 15, host Chad Hartman asked Demuth twice whether she wanted Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act and send in military forces to Minnesota.

“I don’t know, getting me on the record or not. What I will say is we need peace in Minnesota here,” Demuth said.

Indeed, Democrats have been quick to tie Demuth to Trump and to the reports of aggressive, sometimes violent actions of federal agents.

Demuth “has shown that she will work to bring Trump’s dangerous agenda that has unleashed thousands of masked, heavily armed agents on our state,” said Marissa Luna, executive director at Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a powerful DFL political action committee.

In an interview with the Minnesota Star Tribune on Jan. 30, Demuth kept her approach.

Like many Republicans, Demuth called for more cooperation from county sheriffs to help release people who can be deported to immigration agents. She said federal agents in Minnesota are working “to make sure that our communities are completely safe.”

Demuth also said she was encouraged by Homan’s arrival and his statements that “any federal law enforcement that carries things out in the wrong way would be dealt with.”

Demuth chose not to weigh in on whether the shooting of Alex Pretti was justified or whether she agreed with members of the Trump administration who initially characterized Pretti as a domestic terrorist.