What’s the future of conservatism in Minnesota? Three Republicans weigh in

The path out of the political wilderness for Republicans in Minnesota is moderation, at least according to the last conservative to win a statewide race.

There simply aren’t enough Republicans in the state to carry a candidate to victory, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Republican who won the office in 2002 and 2006, said Tuesday at the Minnesota Star Tribune’s first-ever North Star Summit. Trump’s three electoral losses in the state since 2016 show the limits of his appeal here, Pawlenty said.

“Part of the trick here is to have a candidate that can satisfy the [Make American Great Again] base, but also be able to attract independents and Democrats,” Pawlenty said. “That’s a tightrope walk.”

Republicans will have a handful of opportunities next year to win their first statewide race in 20 years, when voters will elect a governor, a U.S. senator and other offices including secretary of state and attorney general.

The conditions for Republicans could be favorable, Pawlenty and GOP state Sens. Zach Duckworth and Julia Coleman told Star Tribune editorial board columnist Rochelle Olson during a panel on the party’s future. Some voters won’t be willing to support Gov. Tim Walz’s attempt to win an unprecedented third consecutive term, Pawlenty asserted.

Minnesotans are also worried about sliding test scores at public schools, concerns over public safety, rising property taxes and ballooning fraud within state benefits programs, Duckworth said. A strong candidate could capitalize on that, he said, by appealing to “free-thinking independent moderate voters who aren’t necessarily worried about voting by a party but are looking for someone who can actually govern responsibly.”

“Our state is at a precipice right now where if we don’t begin to experience some responsible governing, there are some holes that we’re going to be unable to dig ourselves out of,” he said.

The assassination of House DFL Leader Melissa Hortman in June, the mass shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church and School in Minneapolis in August, and a recent death threat toward her all make Coleman want to prioritize her family before thinking about her next chapter, she said.

But Coleman said the gubernatorial field would continue to grow.

“I’m not going to name names, but I think we have a couple more coming out of the woodwork,” Coleman said. A bigger field of candidates “gives a candidate the ability to not necessarily have to go extraordinarily hard to the base, because that’s going to be detrimental when we go to November.”

Pawlenty predicted that the governor race would be competitive and could “reset” the party in the state — if a candidate emerges who can articulate a new vision for the state.

Former NBA player Royce White, who lost the 2024 U.S. Senate race to Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Adam Schwarze, a former Navy SEAL, are the biggest Republican names to enter the race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, a Democrat.