As ICE draws down in Minnesota, data illustrates intensity of its surge here

Operation Metro Surge, the monthslong campaign of aggressive immigration enforcement in Minnesota, is over, according to Trump administration border czar Tom Homan.

A dearth of official data about the surge led to skepticism from residents, driving Minnesotans to look for answers elsewhere. People Over Papers is a popular crowdsourced database of observed and suspected Department of Homeland Security (DHS) activity.

Reports from the last week on that platform indicate observed immigration enforcement is lower than at any point since the beginning of the year. On Friday, two members of Congress from Minnesota said the local contingent of Immigration and Enforcement (ICE) officers is down to 500.

However, the last week also shows more observed activity than in December, when Operation Metro Surge began.

And although the federal presence in Minneapolis and St. Paul has dropped, Homeland Security and ICE agents maintained a noticeable presence in Twin Cities suburbs.

People Over Papers data comes with caveats. Areas with more people willing to document federal agent activity generate more reports. The spike in the Twin Cities likely reflects both increased enforcement and the rapid growth of active observer networks. Conversely, enforcement activity in rural areas — such as ICE raids on dairy farms and arrested high schoolers — may be underreported. Only a small number of reports to the platform are verified by volunteer moderators.

The data does not distinguish between different types of federal activity — a traffic stop, an arrest, surveillance or agents simply present in an area may all generate reports. The platform’s reliance on visual confirmation means the same federal activity could generate reports from multiple users.

People Over Papers co-founder and CEO Celeste, who declined to share her last name after being threatened and harassed about the data last year, said many community members use People Over Papers like a weather map or modern-day green book to forecast how to avoid federal agents.

Observers nationwide have used the platform over much of the last year to document Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown. The data shows comparisons to other high-profile federal operations in cities like Los Angeles and Chicago.

The number of reports during Operation Metro Surge’s peak nearly matches the numbers recorded in Los Angeles in early June, when the Trump administration sent more than 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 Marines to manage protests.

Observed activity in Los Angeles has remained steady after the initial surge. California has an estimated 2.2 million undocumented immigrants — more than any other state. Minnesota has about 130,000 undocumented immigrants, according to estimates from the Pew Research Center.

Chicago’s Operation Midway Blitz registers as a surge, plateau and then sudden drop off in mid-November. Illinois had an estimated 550,000 undocumented immigrants in 2023.

John Boehler, policy counsel for the ACLU of Minnesota, said several clients used information from maps like the one from People Over Papers to respond to federal detainments. The group is suing federal officials for alleged intimidation, chemical burns and constitutional rights violations, and Boehler said observational data plays a vital role in recording alleged abuse.

“To have a record made by residents of where someone was abducted and potentially who was abducted, or what kind of car they were driving, can give families the closure that the federal government should be providing,” Boehler said.