Gov. Tim Walz, Minnesota Democrats see hope for party’s comeback in Tuesday’s election

Minnesota Democrats are drawing lessons from Tuesday’s off-year elections, arguing that romping victories for their party across the country provide a roadmap for governor, the Legislature and an open U.S. Senate race in 2026.

They think they can flip the script on Republicans, who cast their party into the political wilderness last year by tying it to an unpopular president and a fraught economy. DFL Gov. Tim Walz, who was part of his party’s drubbing last fall as the vice presidential nominee, fired an early salvo this week at the growing field of Republican candidates for governor who are seeking the president’s backing.

“Everybody who wants to be governor said, ‘The first thing I want is Donald Trump’s endorsement,’” said Walz, who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four-year term. “No it’s not. The first thing you need to do is earn the trust of the people you’re starting to serve.”

Democrats captured governorships in Virginia and New Jersey in decisive fashion, won the New York City mayor’s race and flipped seats on Georgia’s utility board. A Democratic-led redistricting measure prevailed in California. And in Minnesota, Democrats improved their margins in two state Senate races and saw record turnout in the Minneapolis mayoral election.

The strong showing provided a much-needed boost for Democrats who were demoralized by Trump’s 2024 victory and what some felt was a lack of response by party leaders in the first nine months of his administration. Party leaders say the results showed that Democrats ranging from moderates to socialists can win if they focus on affordability and opposing Trump instead of ideological litmus tests.

“What I took away from this is people are tired of Donald Trump, they’re tired of the chaos,” Walz said. Next year’s elections, he said, “will be a referendum on Donald Trump as much as everything.”

Minnesota Republicans say they recognize possible headwinds but aren’t convinced off-year elections in blue states are a harbinger for 2026. Some noted that Republican victories in Virginia in 2021 did not translate into a red wave the following year.

Republicans are making fraud a central issue in the races for attorney general and state auditor as well. Fraudsters have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from state-run programs in recent years, from swindling $250 million in federal funds meant to feed children during the pandemic to more recent cases in Minnesota’s autism and housing services programs.

Plechash said the St. Paul mayor’s race showed that Minnesotans are willing to reject two-term incumbents over poor management, which could be a warning sign to Walz. State Rep. Kaohly Her, who ousted St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter on Tuesday, focused her attacks on what she called Carter’s unresponsive management.

“Minnesotans are tired of failed leadership and they’re ready to turn the page,” Plechash said.

Defeating Walz and other top Democrats will be a tall order for Minnesota Republicans, who haven’t won a statewide election since 2006. Every statewide office will be on the ballot next November, as will both chambers of the Legislature, a U.S. Senate seat and Minnesota’s eight U.S. House seats.

Democrats believe momentum is on their side heading into the first midterm election of Trump’s second term in a state that has voted against him three times.

“I will absolutely make sure that people understand that people like Brad Finstad and Pete Stauber are proud to stand with President Trump,” Carlbom said, referring to two of Minnesota’s GOP congressmen.

In the fight for control of the Legislature, state Senate Democrats are going to focus on the cost of living and other “kitchen-table issues,” said Sen. Nick Frentz, the Senate DFL’s campaign chair.

Democrats who ran in a pair of state Senate special elections on Tuesday zeroed in on those issues, Frentz said. They improved their margin of victory in an east-suburban district and reduced their margin of defeat in a GOP stronghold west of the metro.

Democrats control the state Senate by a single vote and the state House is tied between Democrats and Republicans.

Frentz, DFL-North Mankato, said Tuesday’s elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey showed voters want moderation. He said Democrats need to stop telling people what to think and instead listen to what their constituents are saying.

For Minnesota Republicans, this week’s elections reiterate the importance of having strong candidates at the top of the ticket, said former GOP state Rep. Pat Garofalo.

Republicans widely believe their candidate for governor in Virginia ran a weak campaign — at one point invoking slavery when criticizing diversity, equity and inclusion programs — dragging down the rest of her ticket.

Garofalo said the most important decision Minnesota Republicans will make next year is who they nominate for governor. “That’s the lesson of the day. Candidate quality and the ability to expand the map, to appeal to both the base and pragmatic voters, is the A1 checkbox.”

To win over independent voters, he said Republicans might need to distance themselves from Trump when necessary.