Muddy Rain?
It rained across parts of the region Sunday night into early Monday with many reports of muddy cars. What gives? Thanks to strong southerly winds, dust was carried from the plains and was deposited on outdoor surfaces close to home. Here's more from the MPCA:
Precipitation Departure From Average This October
It's been a dry October with many locations nearly 1" to 2" below average for the month of October. The Twin Cities is closer to 2" below average, which is good enough for the 9th driest October on record so far.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities more than 4.50" below average, which is the driest September 1st through October 23rd on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is more than 9.60" below average for the year, which is good enough for the 17th driest start to any year on record. Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is more than 9.60" above average, which is good enough for the 2nd wettest start to any year on record.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Fall colors are generally past peak in many spots across the state. There is still some peak color in the southeastern part of the state, but with strong winds during the day Sunday, we'll lose a lot of leaves.
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Another Mostly Dry Week Ahead
The weather outlook through the week ahead looks dry once again with much of the precipitation potential staying well to the southeast and east through midweek. There could be a few light rain showers close to home on Thursday, but it won't amount to much if any at all.
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation potential over the next several days doesn't show much in the way of heavy precipitation. The heaviest will stay farther east into Wisconsin through the midweek time period.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temperature on Tuesday will be quite a bit cooler than it was over the weekend. Highs will only warm into the 40s and 50s, which will actually be closer to average for this late October.
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows much cooler temps in place with a high temp only warming into the low/mid 50s. Again, this will be close to average for Late October. Winds won't be as strong as they were over the last few days and we'll have more sun than we did on Monday.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting around 40F in the morning and warming into the low/mid 40s by the afternoon. We'll have more sun than we did yesterday with WNW winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows MUCH cooler air in place than what we had over the weekend. We'll be closer to average through midweek with slightly warmer temps in place this weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows gradually warming temps through the weekend with very little precipitation potential. So the week ahead looks rather quiet and pretty tame once again.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the Eastern two-thirds of the nation, while cooler than average temps will be found in the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up across the Northwest and possibly across the northern tier of the nation. We'll see what happens, but it certain has been dry across the Upper Midwest and we could use the moisture.
Weather Models Are Part Of The Equation
By Paul Douglas
Will we all be replaced by super-smart robots that don't ask for raises or PTO? I hope not. Recently a friend asked "Paul, do meteorologists actually work? Don't you just go with the weather models?" Ouch.
Models are getting better, but they're a long way from perfect. Based on personal experience (being wrong a lot) we have a sense of which model to believe - when. Data shows the best weather forecasts are a mix of man and machine. I'd say 60-70% of our day comes down to digesting (and correcting) weather models. Knowing when to ignore them is key.
In the future machine-learning and artificial intelligence may redefine best practices and generating the most accurate forecasts. The only predictable thing is change.
Our ration of rain is over with clearing today and a bright-blue sky returning tomorrow. 50s linger into Thursday, close to average for late October.
Mild Pacific winds blow into early November, with 60s this weekend - spilling into next week. Confidence levels are high the models are correct.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, cool breeze. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 52.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 37.
WEDNESDAY: Bright sunshine, crisp. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 53.
THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: 56.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 44. High: 59.
SATURDAY: Sunny and very nice. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 42. High: 63.
SUNDAY: Second Summer Part II. Lukewarm. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 64.
MONDAY: Quiet Halloween. Mild sunshine. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 61.
This Day in Weather History
October 25th
1887: Albert Lea sets a record low of -6 degrees F.
1830: A 'heat wave' hits Ft. Snelling. The high temperature reached 80.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 25th
Average High: 53F (Record: 82F set in 1989)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 12F set in 1887)
Record Rainfall: 0.75" set in 2012
Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 2001 & 2020
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 25th
Sunrise: 7:42am
Sunset: 6:11pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 29 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 55 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 10 minutes
Moon Phase for October 25th at Midnight
0.8 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows lingering warmth across the Eastern US with highs in the 70s and 80s for some. Meanwhile, the western half of the nation will be cooler than average with lingering precipitation chance in the Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
Strong to severe storms will be possible in the Southern US as an area of low pressure develops and slides northeast along a frontal boundary. There could be areas of heavy rainfall as well. Meanwhile, there will be some rain and snow in the Northwest.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows an area of low pressure moving through the mid-section of the nation into the Great Lakes with rain and thunder. Areas of rain and snow will also be possible through the Intermountain-West.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be possible across the Central US and the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible through the Western US and especially in the mountains.
Climate Stories
"Drought to tighten its grip on U.S. this winter, forecasts show"
"The third straight La Niña winter in the U.S. is likely to cause drought to expand and deepen from California to the Plains, branching out across the Southeast, NOAA said Thursday. How it works: Currently, water levels along certain stretches of the Mississippi River are so low that centuries-old shipwrecks are being revealed, and modern-day barge traffic is imperiled. Farmers in multiple states are facing the prospect of a challenging winter wheat season. After a dry winter, if spring rains falter in Texas, there would be a growing possibility of summer water supply constraints, experts warn. The big picture: The new seasonal drought outlook through January depicts a weather pattern that is heavily influenced by a rare, three-winter "triple dip" La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions feature cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific. They can influence weather patterns worldwide."
"California's climate goals are going up in smoke: study"
"A new study puts some hard numbers on the climate impacts of California's worsening wildfires, finding that the state's 2020 blazes overwhelmed its recent emissions cuts. Driving the news: The study, published in Environmental Pollution, is among the first to quantify the carbon emissions from California's fires and the damage they are causing. Zoom in: The 2020 fire season was record-setting, with 4.3 million acres burned. Five of the top 20 largest fires in state history occurred that year, including one so-called "gigafire" that burned more than 1 million acres. Scientists used independent methods to estimate the wildfire-related carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions and found they were about double the state's emissions reductions from 2003-2019. With fire-related emissions included, there was a 30% state emissions jump between 2019 and 2020. The research also estimates the cost associated with the added CO2 emissions, calculating about $7 billion in damage from added warming."
"Why You Shouldn't Cancel Your Upcoming Trip to Puerto Rico"
"Five years ago, Puerto Rico gained international acclaim when the hit song "Despacito" reached the top of the Billboard charts. For the first time, it seemed like all eyes were on this small island in the Caribbean, approximately 100 miles long by 35 miles wide. Suddenly, there was a surge in visitors like never before. Even neighborhoods like La Perla, previously considered off-limits to tourists, were receiving renewed interest. Then Hurricanes Irma and Maria hit, and the island was devastated. Lives were lost, relief funds were mismanaged, and hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans emigrated to the mainland United States."
