Walz enters 2026 race with cash, name recognition and baggage

When Gov. Tim Walz launches his campaign for a third term, he’ll enter the race with every advantage — a boatload of cash, the power of incumbency and the drive to steady Minnesota through yet another year of tumult.

But the two-term Democrat also faces significant headwinds. His support has shrunk in greater Minnesota. His administration is facing criticism over state programs beset with fraud. And he’s trying to become the first person in Minnesota history to win three four-year terms as governor.

Walz’s profile is higher than ever thanks to his run last year for vice president. His bid for a third term will test whether voters have an appetite for 12 years of a Walz administration.

The Democrat has decided he can overcome those obstacles and is expected to make an official announcement next week. The Minnesota Star Tribune reported Wednesday that he’s told close allies he will run for a third term.

“The governor is really strong and I think that he is, from a fundraising perspective, is doing well and can kind of put together a pretty strong team,” said Jeff Hayden, a former Democratic legislator and Walz ally. “Today, I think he’s the right person.”

Republicans are arguing that Walz has worn out his welcome with voters.

“There’s a certain shelf life, if you will, on any political figure who has served as governor,” said David Hann, a former chair of the state Republican Party and former minority leader of the state Senate. “I think that after eight years, people are looking for something different, especially when you have a record as bad as Governor Walz.”

Before he was first elected governor in 2018, Walz served six terms in Congress representing southern Minnesota. In his first campaign, he won his old district. But greater Minnesota has shifted to the right over Walz’s years in office. At the same time, the governor has embraced progressive policies and become a national voice in the Democratic Party.

Meghan Meehan-Draper, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, said in a statement that Walz has “delivered game-changing results to make life better for working families.”

“Democrats at every level would be thrilled if Gov. Walz runs for another term — which is a race he’d enter from a position of strength and absolutely win," she said.

Walz ended last year with more than $1 million in his campaign account. He has been fundraising for much of this year as he weighed a third run. He’ll likely have the backing of the powerhouse Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a political action committee that spent $13 million against his opponent, Scott Jensen, in 2022.

Courtney Alexander, communications director for the Republican Governors Association, said in a statement that Walz will have to explain an impending budget deficit, increased taxes and “the drastic public safety failures under his watch.”

Former House GOP Leader Marty Seifert said he wasn’t sure voters would hold it against Walz that he’s seeking another term. But Seifert argued that Walz was buoyed in his 2022 win by voters’ outcry over the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark guarantee of the right to an abortion. This election, Seifert said, will be a referendum on Walz.

“The last election was essentially a referendum on abortion, and I just don’t see that being the case this time,” he said, “so there’s going to have to be a compelling reason for him to persuade the voters to re-elect him.”

The election, Seifert said, will boil down to the quality of Walz’s GOP opponent and whether that person is seen as a credible, mainstream alternative by independent and moderate voters.

The field of Republican candidates for governor includes Jensen, state Rep. Kristin Robbins of Maple Grove and businessman Kendall Qualls, who also ran in 2022.

“Tim Walz’s first two terms as governor have been nothing but a failure,” Qualls said in a statement. “Walz is a big government liberal who prioritized illegal immigrants over Minnesota families, hiked taxes, let Minneapolis burn in 2020 and destroyed Minnesota’s budget.”

Republicans have also heaped criticism on the governor over a growing number of fraud allegations and investigations of benefits programs administered by the state.

Robbins said in a statement that a third Walz term “would be a disaster,” citing the forecast budget deficit and “rampant fraud in his own agencies.”

“I am committed to stopping the fraud, restoring fiscal responsibility and bringing back common-sense leadership so the state works FOR Minnesotans, not against them,” Robbins said.

Hayden called the fraud issue the “elephant in the room” for Democrats and said he believes Walz wants to fix it so it doesn’t help define his legacy.

After vacillating through the summer about his 2026 plans, Walz has said recently that he’s been motivated by the families of children killed in the Annunciation Catholic Church and School shooting last month.

“There’s more to do here,” Hayden added. “And he wants to get it done.”