Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota. Thanks to recent frosty overnight lows and dwindling daylight - peak color is coming fast to a backyard near you. Note that peak color is already being reported across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin with near peak color in many other locations. Get out there and enjoy it quick before it's too late!
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals
Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Light Rain Midweek
Here's the weather outlook through the week ahead, which shows another cold front blasting through midweek with rain chances and colder temps.
Precipitation Potential
Here's the precipitation potential, which shows very light rainfall amounts across the state. Most locations will be lucky to see 0.05" to 0.10" tallies, but a few lucky communities in eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin will see the best chance of rain.
Sharp Cold Front Arrives Midweek
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through Friday. Note the oranges and reds in place through midweek, which suggests above average temps through that time frame. However, there is a sharp cold front that will blast through late Wednesday with temps turning well below average.
Much Colder Late Week
Here's a look at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. Note that highs will warm into the 70s again on Tuesday before the bottom falls out again late week.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Temperature on Wednesday will still be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid October.
Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday shows mostly cloudy skies in place during the day with temperatures warming to near 70F.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting in the mid 40s in the morning and warming to near 70F by the afternoon.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming into the 70s to near 80 through Tuesday, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for early October. However, temps will cool down significantly late week with highs only warming to 50F, which is nearly -10F below average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows one last mild day Tuesday before much colder air moves in.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the Western US. Cooler than average temps will be in place across the Eastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest and Southeast. More active weather will be found in the Southern & Southwestern US.
Tuesday Thunder, Then a Few Real Cold Fronts
By Paul Douglas
Yes, the weather in recent weeks has been superb. We've experienced a drop-dead-gorgeous autumn so far. But the lake out back is shrinking and I fear my lawn may catch fire at any moment. To say we need rain is a dire understatement. So I won't say it.
September was the driest on record and the pattern hasn't shifted much in October. The old adage rings true "When in a drought don't predict rain." The arrival of cold front #1 may spark strong T-storms late tomorrow with gusty winds and small hail in some towns. Showers linger Wednesday with highs in the 50s.
A stalled "cut off low" swirling over Ontario will send cold front #2 hurtling our way Sunday, and by early next week it will be cold enough for snow, even in the Twin Cities metro. However, moisture will be lacking. Nothing new. Models hint at a few slushy inches for Lake of the Woods with flurries into the Brainerd Lakes early next week.
On Twitter David asked if we will now see snow before it rains. Not quite, but you have the right idea.
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Lukewarm sun. Perfect. Winds: S 7-12. High: 72.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & quiet. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 57.
TUESDAY: Breezy with late PM T-storms. Winds: S 15-25. High: 77.
WEDNESDAY: Cooler with a few showers. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 57.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and gusty. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 43. High: 50.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, passing shower. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 60.
SUNDAY: Showery, windy and colder. Winds: NW 15-35. Wake-up: 36. High: 43.
This Day in Weather History
October 10th
1977: A few locations receive early accumulating snow, including Minneapolis with 2.5 inches, Gaylord with 2 inches, and Jordan with 2 inches.
1970: Early snowfall is recorded in west central Minnesota. Snow totals range from a trace to 4.2 inches in Benson. Other areas include Montevideo with 4 inches, Canby with 3.2 inches, Morris with 2.6 inches, and Willmar with 2.5 inches. New London, New Ulm, and Buffalo all recorded 2 inches of snowfall.
1949: An incredibly strong low pressure system brings hurricane force winds across Minnesota. This was possibly the strongest non-thunderstorm wind event seen in Minnesota. Top winds are clocked at 100 mph at Rochester, with a gust of 89 mph at the Twin Cities International Airport. 4 deaths and 81 injuries are reported. Numerous store windows are broken, and large chimneys toppled. The top 10 floors of the Foshay building are evacuated with the tenants feeling seasick from the swaying building.
1928: Record high temperatures are set across central Minnesota with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 10th
Average High: 61F (Record: 90F set in 1928)
Average Low: 43F (Record: 25F set in 1964 & 1987)
Record Rainfall: 1.89" set in 1898
Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 1977
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 10th
Sunrise: 7:22am
Sunset: 6:37pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 14 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 hour & 26 minutes
Moon Phase for October 10th at Midnight
1.4 Days After Full "Hunter's Moon"
3:55 p.m. CDT October 9th - With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it's now time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox and other animals.
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the Eastern US in the wake of Hurricane Ian. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will be found from the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Monday
A few showers will linger across the Mid-Atlantic States, where the remnants of Ian will still be in place. Meanwhile, an area of T-showers will work through the Midwest with light rainfall amounts, followed by much cooler air late week. There will also be areas of T-Showers in the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through midweek shows another developing storm in the Central US with showers and storms in place.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the heaviest precipitation will be in the eastern US.
Climate Stories
"See the pumpkin orange Full Hunter's Moon of October 2022 rise tonight! Here's what to expect."
"The Sun is going through something now, and it is heating up more than its normal temperature, which at the same time, released solar flares and rated X1, one of the hottest there is on its scale. NASA was able to document the experience and share the development with the world, showing some bursts of light of the central figure. Its emissions of the solar flares peaked last Sunday, showing this massive activity of the bright star. NASA's blog recently released a report regarding the latest solar flare which took place last Sunday, October 2, with its peak that took place at around 4:25 p.m. EDT. The team noted that this particular solar flare is X1, and the X-class is the most intense on the agency's scale for the many outburst of the Sun."
"Reducing The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters"
"Globally, there have been 350-500 medium- and large-scale disasters per year in 2001-2020 compared to 90-100 to 1970 to 2000. The VettaFi Natural Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Index aims to track the companies that are the driving force behind natural disaster mitigation and adaptation. While it is almost impossible to prevent certain natural disasters from occurring, it is possible to reduce the economic costs from natural disasters."
See more from Seeking Alpha HERE:
"Seasonal change in Antarctic ice sheet movement observed for first time"
"Some estimates of Antarctica's total contribution to sea-level rise may be over- or underestimated, after researchers detected a previously unknown source of ice loss variability. The researchers, from the University of Cambridge and Austrian engineering company ENVEO, identified distinct, seasonal movements in the flow of land-based ice draining into George VI Ice Shelf—a floating platform of ice roughly the size of Wales—on the Antarctic Peninsula."
