Republicans struggle to find candidate for open Minnesota U.S. Senate race

On paper, Minnesota’s rare open seat in the U.S. Senate on the ballot next fall should be an ideal pickup opportunity for Republicans.

The GOP gained ground nationally in 2024, and Democrats are struggling to coalesce around a message that will appeal to swing voters.

But nearly a year since DFL Sen. Tina Smith announced her retirement, only two main Republicans have emerged: controversial former NBA player Royce White, who lost to Sen. Amy Klobuchar last year, and retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, a newcomer candidate who has lagged in fundraising.

“If the broader political dynamics are working in Republicans’ favor, or at least in a balanced favor, we should have a shot, but it’s not there right now,” said former Republican U.S. Rep. Vin Weber.

Minnesota’s gubernatorial race has drawn plenty of interest from prominent Republicans, but the Senate race has been notable mostly for the number who’ve decided to pass, including the four Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation and former two-term Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Some of the candidates who are either in the governor’s race or weighing runs, including state Rep. Kristin Robbins and state Sen. Julia Coleman, also opted not to run for the Senate.

Pawlenty, a self-described “Reagan Republican,” said he was deterred from running because of the state party’s endorsement process, which has favored far-right candidates in the era of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.

Pawlenty was the last Republican to win statewide office in Minnesota in 2006. The GOP’s last successful campaign for the U.S. Senate dates back even further, to Norm Coleman’s win in 2002.

Republican operatives say prospective candidates are worried about whether the state GOP, which has struggled with debt, will be able support them in the race and fear other donors won’t jump in to fill the fundraising void.

“For some reason, it affects people’s thinking more about a potential Senate candidacy than it does about a potential gubernatorial candidacy,” Weber said.

Still, national Republicans are trying to recruit other candidates to make it competitive. Officials from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) visited the state this summer to meet with prospective candidates, according to Republicans familiar with the trip.

But so far, their efforts have fallen flat. Former University of Minnesota basketball star Willie Burton, whom the group hoped to recruit, missed several meetings with the NRSC, including with its Chairman Sen. Tim Scott and other stakeholders, according to two people familiar with the planning of the meetings.

Though some Republicans see Schwarze as a serious candidate, others have raised concerns about the less than half a million dollars he’s raised for the campaign so far. And Republicans worry their chances of winning the seat will diminish significantly if White wins the nomination again.

White handily lost to Klobuchar last fall and faced allegations of campaign finance violations, including spending money on clothing, food, haircuts and at a strip club.

“Royce White should not be deemed fit to run,” said former Republican Party deputy chair and state legislator Kelly Fenton. “Now, if ... he’s the candidate that’s going to be on the November ballot, well, most people will concede to the Democrat running.”

Asked about concern from fellow Republicans about his run for Senate, White responded by referring to the Star Tribune with an expletive.

In an interview in February, GOP Chair Alex Plechash predicted there would be a “different outcome” on White’s bid for the endorsement now that delegates had more information about him.

In an interview this month, Plechash struck a more neutral tone on White. “Whoever the candidate is that gets endorsed will have 100% support from the party,” he said.

“I’m confident that as it fills out, even the skeptics will be impressed by the quality and seriousness of our candidates,” Plechash said. “This is not the Republican Party of old.”

State Rep. Jim Nash of Waconia told the Star Tribune he’s weighing a Senate run and has had conversations with the NRSC about a bid. He plans to decide before the year’s end.

“I am considering all the things that go into becoming a candidate for U.S. Senate if the delegates were to choose me as the nominee,” said Nash, who’s also been floated as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

Republicans also say Kathleen Fowke, a two-time state Senate candidate and the wife of former Xcel Energy CEO Ben Fowke, is being encouraged to run and could self-fund a campaign if she enters. Fowke did not respond to requests for comment.

Said Coleman, the last Republican to win a Senate race in Minnesota: “I think this race is late forming. I think we’ll have a clearer picture by the early end of next year. I think that’s when the baton drops and the race really begins.”