Poll: Trump’s immigration crackdown deeply unpopular in Minnesota

New polling shows Minnesotans and people across the country widely disapprove of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown in the state, a shift that’s turned his deportation campaign from a political strength into a potential liability ahead of the midterm elections.

Negative marks on Operation Metro Surge from independents and suburban voters could be a problem for Republicans hoping to hold onto the U.S. House and Senate. It could also be an obstacle for a Minnesota GOP that hoped to win control of the Legislature and the governor’s office by riding a wave of frustration with widespread fraud in social services programs.

About two-thirds of Minnesotans view U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement negatively and believe the tactics of federal agents have gone too far, according to the NBC News Decision Desk/KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune Poll powered by SurveyMonkey.

An overwhelming majority of Minnesotans want local police to cooperate with immigration authorities to deport people in some or all cases. That could be a welcome result for the Trump administration, which has made greater cooperation a condition of withdrawing the remaining 2,000 federal agents that have been operating in Minnesota since December. Federal officials have blamed the chaos of street arrests on some local leaders who they say won’t work with ICE or Border Patrol.

There’s also little support for abolishing ICE. Nearly three-quarters of Americans want to see the agency reformed or kept as is, according to a national NBC News Decision Desk poll conducted at the same time.

At the same time, only 40% of Minnesotans approve of Trump’s job performance, about the same as nationally. A Minnesota poll of registered voters last summer found 45% of people approved of the job Trump was doing in his second term.

Nearly 60% of Minnesotans said the Trump administration deserves most of the blame for clashes and unrest between protesters and federal immigration agents in the state.

The survey of 1,229 adults aged 18 or older in Minnesota had a margin of sampling error estimated to be plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 6, days after federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and shortly after Trump installed border czar Tom Homan in Minneapolis.

Most who identified themselves as Republican or Republican-leaning in the Minnesota poll supported how ICE is handling its job. Though 15% disapprove, it’s a sign that Trump’s voter base is generally sticking with him.

Bigger warning signs for Republicans are the sentiments of political independents and suburban voters, who are often critical swing voters who decide elections in Minnesota and across the country. A significant majority of independents disapprove of Trump, say the country is on the wrong track, and that ICE tactics have gone too far.

ICE’s approval is lowest in Minneapolis and St. Paul, a hotbed of DFL support, but 69% of suburban residents also disapprove of how ICE is handling its job.

“I’m watching videos of these federal agents throwing smoke bombs and tear gas. It looked like something you see in a war zone in another country, and this is Minneapolis,” said Tenanye Heard, 48, who lives in Anoka County.

“When we start focusing on the Somalis, you lose me there; this is not what you said,” said Heard.

Jason Simonovich, a 29-year-old electrician from Ramsey, said he voted for Trump in 2024 and will lean Republican in the next election.

Simonovich said ICE is necessary to remove people who entered the country illegally, especially violent criminals. Still, Simonovich said Trump is wrongly demonizing Somalis and that it’s more difficult to navigate the value of immigration enforcement with “a Mexican who has been here for 20 years who has done absolutely nothing and maybe just their green card expired.”

He said Operation Metro Surge could have been done with “less fear mongering” and that he doesn’t like racial profiling by federal agents.

“We have friends who have been American citizens their entire life, but because of a skin tone they are carrying their passports to a Target,” he said. “In the suburbs.”

GOP candidates for governor have also had to balance winning a primary in a party that broadly supports ICE without alienating a general electorate with different views.

However, even in greater Minnesota, where Trump is most popular, a narrow majority either strongly disapproves or somewhat disapproves of how ICE is handling its job.

The poll results also might help explain Homan’s arrival and a swift change in tone from Trump and other federal officials. Homan promised a more collaborative relationship with local officials as the Trump administration tried to calm a fierce bipartisan backlash to ICE’s tactics and the false claims made by some Trump administration officials about Pretti.

The pugnacious Border Patrol Cmdr. Greg Bovino said it appeared Pretti had been intent on massacring law enforcement, a statement no video evidence has corroborated. He was reassigned to a post in California.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who initially said Pretti “committed an act of domestic terrorism,” has taken on a less public role in the operation.

To date, the federal government has excluded local law enforcement agencies from participating in the investigation into the fatal shootings of both Pretti and Renee Good. About 62% of Minnesotans say they are not at all confident or not too confident that federal authorities will conduct a fair and transparent investigation into the killings. Roughly the same percentage believe the federal government has gone too far in disregarding the authority of state and local leaders.

Nearly nine in 10 Minnesotans said federal agents should not be granted immunity from prosecution for unlawful activity during immigration enforcement. Most also disapprove of agents wearing masks.

But opposition to the immigration crackdown in Minnesota was not limited to federal agents killing Good and Pretti. Many believe the tactics of ICE are a threat to U.S. citizens, not just immigrants who entered the country illegally.

Roughly 59% percent of Minnesotans disagreed when asked if law-abiding citizens have nothing to fear from ICE and Border Patrol.

The views of Minnesotans were similar to those across the country. In the national survey of 21,995 adults, about two-thirds either strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove of how ICE is handling its job.