Analysis: Batted passes and drops point to problems with J.J. McCarthy’s mechanics

For the first time in his NFL career Sunday, J.J. McCarthy played an entire game without being sacked. He was the first Vikings QB to do so since Oct. 23, 2023, when Kirk Cousins made his last start at U.S. Bank Stadium.

In each game since that surprising Monday night win over the 49ers that seemed to turn around the Vikings’ 2023 season, the team had allowed at least one sack. That streak ended Sunday, when the Vikings kept McCarthy from being sacked the entire game and the Bears pressured him on just nine of his 32 dropbacks. But Chicago’s pass rushers became the latest to affect McCarthy another way: by getting their hands up.

The Bears batted two of McCarthy’s passes in their 19-17 win, with Tremaine Edmunds getting a piece of a third-and-8 throw that landed between T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson midway through the fourth quarter, before Montez Sweat tipped the quarterback’s third-down throw for Aaron Jones Sr. before the two-minute warning.

McCarthy has eight batted or tipped passes among his 140 attempts this season, according to Pro Football Focus. It puts him eighth in the NFL, just one behind Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 361 passes this year.

In terms of frequency, there’s no quarterback who’s had his passes deflected more. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, McCarthy’s 5.7% rate of batted or tipped passes is the highest in the NFL. Just last week against the Ravens, he had five of his 42 passes batted or tipped.

Asked Monday to identify the cause of the batted passes, coach Kevin O’Connell pointed to two familiar themes: McCarthy’s pocket mechanics, and the tactics opposing defenses are using against the young quarterback.

“I think last week was a product of a few downs where some of the big guys from Baltimore, that was their role on the play was to block some shots,” O’Connell said. “But then, there was also some times where I think we’re moving pretty aggressively, churning up, eating up some space and the friendliness of the pocket. We’ve got to continue to find that balance and that posture and then maintain it without chewing up too much grass.”

Vikings receivers didn’t help McCarthy much Sunday, dropping six of his passes, according to Pro Football Focus. For the season, the quarterback has the highest rate of dropped passes in the NFL, with 14.9% of his on-target passes being dropped by the receiver, per PFF.

There again, it’s worth wondering whether the quarterback could help reduce the drop rate by throwing a more catchable ball.

“I would have to go back and look at what we’re deeming true drops versus, are the guys having to work to make catches consistently outside the frame of their body?” O’Connell said. “I mean, I thought some of some of our best completions of the day were well-thrown footballs and guys made some plays for him as well. ...Each individual play is going to be magnified, especially when you are running [the ball] and trying to maintain a rhythm for the offense. Part of maintaining that is just finding the way to pitch and catch on a couple of those looks. It’s a pitch and catch element that has kind of made this offense kind of fit.”

After the game, McCarthy said bad habits can sometimes resurface in games, when tensions rise as the stakes escalate. It’s why O’Connell continued to remind him about having his feet and eyes work together, both to reinforce one of the Vikings’ QB coaching staples and to provide a sense of calm in the routine elements of the position.

And in certain moments, like the pass Sweat tipped Sunday, O’Connell finds himself musing about how close the play was to a different outcome.

The Vikings have little choice but to continue rehearsing and repeating the details of the position, so McCarthy builds the muscle memory to give them what they want on Sundays.

“I thought there are some plays where he’s making it hard on himself. I think that’s probably the most frustrating part for him,” O’Connell said. “It’s talked about and repped and practiced at length, and then in those moments, in his fifth start, it’s just the variance to it. It’s causing his job to be more difficult than it needs to be. And he’s wildly capable of making the throws that present themselves. There were some good throws in there as well. Some throws there late [in the game] that, even after what had been a frustrating day for him, his ability to still respond and move the team late to get a lead, he’s made of the right stuff. He’s going to keep working at it.”