A single unit of the virtual currency bitcoin this week was worth more than 17 times what it was at the start of the year, yet it wasn't until two bits of information landed here the same week that a reasonable conclusion was finally clear: Bitcoin had left the earthly realm of finance and zoomed off into the thin air of fantasy.
One was just a short piece in Bloomberg on the future of ConnectX. This company plans to replace a common practice of bitcoin owners of keeping a "wallet" key safe from hackers by burying them in the backyard by instead blasting their digital wallets up into space. Seriously, on satellites.
The other bit of information was a Twitter message from John McAfee, an early innovator in computer security software and now a high-profile cryptocurrency enthusiast.
"Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not [care] enough to try," he wrote. "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else."
LOL, as the teenagers say on the internet.
If assets have a price and can trade, people can easily convince themselves that the price only goes up and then pay far too much to own them. That's a paradigm as old as market economies.
This is not to say bitcoin is overvalued. Sure seems like it is, but if there is a way to carefully analyze bitcoin and arrive at its fair price, it's completely unknown to me. Some famous skeptics on bitcoin don't have it quite right, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. boss Jamie Dimon. He explained in October he couldn't understand the value of "something that has no actual value."
Dimon, for all his gifts, had forgotten a pretty fundamental idea. Currencies are worth something just because enough people think they are. The $20 bill in your wallet is worth $20 because you, along with Target, U.S. Bank, Caribou Coffee and just about everyone else, believes it is.